Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The official XPRIZE release directly supports the narrowed claim’s figures: more than 2,500 submissions, 65 semi-finalists, and five finalists. weight 1.800000 evidence

Strongest counted contradiction: The official XPRIZE release reports more than 2,500 film submissions, 65 semi-finalists, and five finalists—not over 5,000 registered teams. weight 0.540000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “Future Vision XPRIZE received more than 2,500 film trailers and treatments, narrowed them to 65 semifinalists and five finalists who will screen trailers at...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
• “Future Vision XPRIZE received more than 2,500 film trailers and treatments, narrowed them to 65 semifinalists and five finalists who will screen trailers at...” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
• “Future Vision XPRIZE received more than 2,500 film trailers and treatments, narrowed them to 65 semifinalists and five finalists who will screen trailers at...” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
• “Future Vision XPRIZE received more than 2,500 film trailers and treatments, narrowed them to 65 semifinalists and five finalists who will screen trailers at...” · 1 claim · 22 September 2026

Evidence for

• Diamandis says over 5,000 teams registered and the field is narrowed to 25.

  From OpenAI Agents Hijack a German Website, Jensen Declares AGI Arrived, and OpenAI Solves Navier-Stokes Read 2026-09-20 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

  carried from link 23817708-d900-8c79-afe3-44bdcf78ecb1 on the revision of claim 2f721c40-f0f3-892a-af32-cca59a452a28

• XPRIZE reports more than 2,500 submissions, 65 semifinalists, and five advancing finalists.

  From Future Vision XPRIZE and Build with Gemini XPRIZE Name Top Five Finalists Read 2026-09-22 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• The official XPRIZE release directly supports the narrowed claim’s figures: more than 2,500 submissions, 65 semi-finalists, and five finalists.

  From Future Vision XPRIZE and Build with Gemini XPRIZE Name Top Five Finalists – Awarding $5M+ at Moonshots LIVE Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  This corrected link applies to the superseding narrowed claim, not the obsolete over-5,000-teams wording.

• The official XPRIZE release reports over 2,500 film submissions, 65 semifinalists, and five finalists, directly supporting the current claim's figures.

  From Future Vision XPRIZE and Build with Gemini XPRIZE Name Top Five Finalists – Awarding $5M+ at Moonshots LIVE Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The source matches the current claim's 2,500-plus submissions, 65 semifinalists, and five finalists; it is the superseding claim's appropriate target.

Evidence against

• The official XPRIZE release reports more than 2,500 film submissions, 65 semi-finalists, and five finalists—not over 5,000 registered teams.

  From Future Vision XPRIZE and Build with Gemini XPRIZE Name Top Five Finalists – Awarding $5M+ at Moonshots LIVE Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

  The release counts film trailers and treatments rather than teams, so it materially challenges the claim’s figure and unit but does not prove that no additional team registrations existed.

Qualifications

• XPRIZE reports over 2,500 submissions, 65 semifinalists, and five finalists for Future Vision.

  From Future Vision XPRIZE and Build with Gemini XPRIZE Name Top Five Finalists – Awarding $5M+ at Moonshots LIVE Read 2026-09-22 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

  carried from link 10f7fe1c-8d04-828b-a85d-cf13a0a1ba31 on the revision of claim 2f721c40-f0f3-892a-af32-cca59a452a28

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	c65232d3, 9d2c5060, 426327db

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
5467	APPENDED
5468	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
5469	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 56fe4c61 (accepted)
5471	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 56fe4c61 (accepted)
5479	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 56fe4c61 (accepted)
13611	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13615	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15682	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "cece79ad-4077-8c14-a8aa-00d7289ad5f1",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "5909c4f2-4c04-8c90-b5b9-48639ecc9cb3",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "cecd904c-ad7a-86d3-8d42-e22fedc6cd88",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "6814c314-8516-8327-8b54-92c2cccfff81",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "ccc1e06a-512f-8542-88e7-56c010f38a6e",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "0.540000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "691c834f-73ac-8ffd-93c3-25b3c65232d3",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "01fd685b-9034-829d-ab04-eadc5427bf6f",
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      "relevance": "DIRECT",
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      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "8683c9c7-8e8d-89d3-bdec-87339d2c5060",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "5ebea8e2-a663-82a9-88bd-6c23addcde90",
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      "magnitude": "0.459000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
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      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
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    },
    {
      "link": "e3dcafb6-c9ac-8430-91dd-7067792d7a62",
      "group": "d62f17be-c315-8a14-9bfc-f8a51a228a2f",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "df7539a5-5ccd-8944-a1e0-55e38dddbadf",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.408000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "EYEWITNESS",
      "source_type": "VIDEO",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.408000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "ef95fa5e-60b9-8fb8-9327-cd9a426327db",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "1b5564d7-2608-8550-a1ee-087d1748ecfa",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
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      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
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      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0233",
    "permissive": "0.9989",
    "conservative": "0.9756"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": true,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9949",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "5.268000",
  "snapshot_seq": 15683,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 4,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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        "691c834f-73ac-8ffd-93c3-25b3c65232d3",
        "8683c9c7-8e8d-89d3-bdec-87339d2c5060",
        "ef95fa5e-60b9-8fb8-9327-cd9a426327db"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 1,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "5.268000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 5
}