Claim

The Dewar-region evidence implies that the Moon had an internally generated magnetic field stronger than 10 μT around 4.2 billion years ago.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 24046

Referenced 200 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 1, viewed 134, shared 63. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe Physics · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Leans supported

Score: 0.6035 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 6 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:dcf992b9-c18b-826c-8ae0-69070f4231bf

Not yet independently audited.Evidence points both ways.A quoted passage from meetingorganizer.copernicus.org and newspaceeconomy.ca was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: ETH reports a lunar magnetic field stronger than 10 μT at 4.2 billion years ago. weight 0.600000 evidence

Strongest counted contradiction: Material-property uncertainties could reduce the estimated minimum field to approximately 5.4 microtesla. weight 0.180000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The EGU abstract reports paleointensity exceeding 11 μT and infers an active lunar dynamo at about 4.2 Ga.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.6035 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Leans supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 7 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:4fdd287fac452f424fddc7fb0e61fc599c58940c13213911701c9f80016e506e

Last changed at entry seq 24978; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
71354485 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000
78bc98c5 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.600000	0.600000
6265f8c2 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
bbb1ebcf qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
18ccd860 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 71354485)
50d6f639 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
fa3bf961 contradict	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.180000	0.180000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 0.420000 (the counted weights) = 0.420000 → probability 0.6035

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.5730 to 0.6332, a spread of 0.0602.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The Dewar-region evidence implies that the Moon had an internally generated magnetic field stronger than 10 μT around 4.2 billion years ago.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“Joint lunar gravity and magnetic observations identify a buried high-density, magnetized body in the Dewar region and imply an active lunar dynamo around 4.2...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The EGU abstract reports paleointensity exceeding 11 μT and infers an active lunar dynamo at about 4.2 Ga.

From Abstract EGU26-2285 Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
ETH reports a lunar magnetic field stronger than 10 μT at 4.2 billion years ago.

From The far side of the Moon provides clues to a previous magnetic field Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The EGU abstract reports paleointensity exceeding 11 μT and infers an active lunar dynamo at about 4.2 Ga.

From Abstract EGU26-2285 Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

Material-property uncertainties could reduce the estimated minimum field to approximately 5.4 microtesla.

From What Does the Dewar Magnetic Anomaly Reveal About the Moon’s Ancient Magnetic Field? Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

The source reports a plausible uncertainty range below 10 μT, directly challenging an unconditional stronger-than-10-μT formulation.

Qualifications

The ETH report presents the stronger-than-10-μT field as a researcher conclusion based on findings, not a direct in-situ measurement.

From The far side of the Moon provides clues to a previous magnetic field Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The field strength is reported as a conclusion from orbital observations and modeling, with the age tied to geological constraints.
The primary abstract frames >11 μT as a formation requirement and says the dynamo inference is suggested, with age constrained by superposed basin ejecta.

From Abstract EGU26-2285 Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The >10 μT value is an inferred paleointensity requirement and the internally generated field is a dynamo interpretation, dated approximately 4.2 Ga.
The >10 μT field estimate and approximately 4.2-Ga age are model-dependent and carry substantial material and chronological uncertainty.

From What Does the Dewar Magnetic Anomaly Reveal About the Moon’s Ancient Magnetic Field? Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Independent secondary coverage preserves the claim’s broad result while making its assumptions and age uncertainty explicit.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
a66e7a5f		71354485

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	71354485, 6265f8c2, 18ccd860

Summary

Leans supported. The main support is: ETH reports a lunar magnetic field stronger than 10 μT at 4.2 billion years ago. 37c18a70

Against that, contradiction: Material-property uncertainties could reduce the estimated minimum field to approximately 5.4 microtesla. f49e6016

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. a66e7a5f

Qualifier: The primary abstract frames >11 μT as a formation requirement and says the dynamo inference is suggested, with age constrained by superposed basin ejecta. db2cc697

Qualifier: The >10 μT field estimate and approximately 4.2-Ga age are model-dependent and carry substantial material and chronological uncertainty. 15a2fc9f

Qualifier: The ETH report presents the stronger-than-10-μT field as a researcher conclusion based on findings, not a direct in-situ measurement. 72fae3da

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
24046	APPENDED
24047	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
24058	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24060	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24094	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24186	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24969	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24977	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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