Galedra
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Claim

In China the Communist Party controls all media, there is no independent press, and the Chinese people have no access to information about their own country unless the government has approved it.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 6070

32 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluablea comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 136 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 104, shared 30. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Geopolitics · e82bf250 Media · e82bf250

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9957 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

4 independent evidence lineages · review checks 2 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:ddfd5860-b7a1-83ea-af04-1d9f01743d76

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage from rsf.org was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: China's news media are treated by the Party as instruments of political control, not independent sources of information. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9957 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 2 of 4 · stability HIGH · 5 sources, 4 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:be0ec5462b5a76c73e8ea3c8aaaba86844f432c49f8491d386d0c964fe1febc1

Last changed at entry seq 11555; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
84f570be support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.918000 0.918000
be5cee14 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
6c0afb52 support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.918000 0.918000
09ddaee2 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.530000 0.000000 (non directional)
bc80462e support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 5.436000 (the counted weights) = 5.436000 → probability 0.9957

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9782 to 0.9991, a spread of 0.0209.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes87376ef3
opposing search doneyes15e978cb
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedno

Summary

Supported. The main support is: Freedom House says the CCP maintains tight control over China’s media and online speech. 301c0f17

Qualifier: RSF strongly documents state control and repression of independent journalism, but its wording is narrower than the claim’s absolute assertions that all media are controlled and that people have no access to any non-approved information. 3177ab4d

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 15e978cb

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 15e978cb

Review checks: 2 of 4. coverage:ddfd5860-b7a1-83ea-af04-1d9f01743d76

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
6070APPENDED
6071ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
7142TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)
8996TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
11554LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "ddfd5860-b7a1-83ea-af04-1d9f01743d76",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "34bc5670-ef02-8826-bc03-3f4b84f570be",
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      "relevance": "STRONG",
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      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.918000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "47496a6f-bd72-84c3-b1e5-2ed5be5cee14",
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      "relevance": "DIRECT",
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      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
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      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "898ca2b1-81e9-8099-ae3c-f9f36c0afb52",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f1b6d6f5-b4bf-8bf1-a0d9-cd6d73c5057b",
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      "magnitude": "0.918000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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    },
    {
      "link": "8ca0d44b-be3b-8b45-afea-b8f509ddaee2",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "80da1508-d9b9-89df-a9bd-073e3177ab4d",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.530000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
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      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "ad2d3853-219a-88df-8497-e705bc80462e",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "7b133d1d-3d4a-834c-8cd2-6703b25cb636",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
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      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0209",
    "permissive": "0.9991",
    "conservative": "0.9782"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9957",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "5.436000",
  "snapshot_seq": 11555,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 4,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.50",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
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      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
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      ],
      "ok": true
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    "independence_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
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    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "5.436000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 5
}