Galedra
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Claim

France deliberately fed Donald Trump false intelligence as a test of whether he would leak it to Vladimir Putin.

Type HISTORICAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 6307

Referenced 163 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 122, shared 40. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Geopolitics · 56fe4c61 Government · 56fe4c61

Assessment

Insufficient evidence

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

0 independent evidence lineages · review checks 2 of 4 · stability n/a

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:e65c95fc-e0f7-88f7-860c-4dad303f56f0

Not yet independently audited.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Insufficient evidence to Supported.

Hide calculation

No probability. No counted evidence bears on this claim at this snapshot.

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:97bace6ae871f66df0b70b3163c8ff44d4ca324f48b1fc97d95c551285ac312c

Last changed at entry seq 9011; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
5ab62c5e qualify relevance CONTEXT_ONLY 0.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (non directional)
432058bd neutral relevance CONTEXT_ONLY 0.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (non directional)
c2519b3f qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)

prior — → log-odds —

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

None.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
5cc9e5a5NARROWS303f56f0

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes306727ce
opposing search doneyescc0e0f19
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedno

Summary

Insufficient evidence. No counted evidence bears on this claim yet. coverage:e65c95fc-e0f7-88f7-860c-4dad303f56f0

Qualifier: Reuters reported Macron saying France was providing intelligence to Ukraine, not describing false intelligence being planted with the United States. 0329bff0

Qualifier: The fact-check found no evidence for the false-information rumor and attributed it to a misunderstanding; it separately says the interview did not make the claimed statement. 59e8f10a

A narrower version of this claim is supported. 5cc9e5a5

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. cc0e0f19

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. cc0e0f19

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
6307APPENDED
6308ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
6333LINK_EVIDENCEby 56fe4c61 (accepted)
6468TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)
7810TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "e65c95fc-e0f7-88f7-860c-4dad303f56f0",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "175de01c-ede6-8fd9-acb2-5e2e5ab62c5e",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "63688f2a-1949-895d-ab9f-98100329bff0",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "4b78abb7-6799-87d6-9f35-0969432058bd",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "dfad97dc-b4c6-8d63-b694-50367b385b2f",
      "direction": "NEUTRAL",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "CONTEXT_ONLY",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "adbb84f1-a753-8228-973a-acbac2519b3f",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "04443109-f833-8f5e-84cd-d39659e8f10a",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": null,
  "variants": null,
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": null,
  "claim_type": "HISTORICAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": null,
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": null,
  "snapshot_seq": 9011,
  "prior_log_odds": null,
  "support_groups": 0,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.50",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c8f7-4855-77d2-8a9d-df11306727ce"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c8f7-4838-7cd8-b606-78b6cc0e0f19"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": null,
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}