Claim

Canada has 68,000 active military personnel.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 26192

Referenced 162 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 103, shared 58. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Geopolitics · 401bf0a0

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8220 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

0 of 4 review checks done · 0 counted

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 1 counted evidence item has no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:f085396e-1f62-865e-a775-55e31a381634

Not yet independently audited; some evidence was recorded by an anonymous contributor.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 0 of 4 review checks have been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: Canada reported 68,473 Regular Force personnel as of 31 July 2026. weight 1.530000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.8220 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 1 source, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:9f9564ff552d35ac1ec1dccbab8717f0eacec9a0f01f22b175f97bdf34a1b74c

Last changed at entry seq 26255; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
11da866d support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.530000	1.530000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.530000 (the counted weights) = 1.530000 → probability 0.8220

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7448 to 0.8796, a spread of 0.1348.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“CANADA HAS A CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF U.S. MILITARY ACTION. Canada vs U.S. comparison: personnel 68,000 vs 1,328,000; fighter jets...” · 7 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

Canada reported 68,473 Regular Force personnel as of 31 July 2026.

From OpenChronicle: Canada recruiting soldiers / CAF personnel figures Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 1 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Supported. The main support is: Canada reported 68,473 Regular Force personnel as of 31 July 2026. 616e93dd

Review checks: 0 of 4. coverage:f085396e-1f62-865e-a775-55e31a381634

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
26192	APPENDED
26193	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
26254	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 401bf0a0 (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "f085396e-1f62-865e-a775-55e31a381634",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "56954896-7809-8f33-82cf-88bd11da866d",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "2abf9000-88a0-8209-8a31-9d35616e93dd",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.530000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.530000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1348",
    "permissive": "0.8796",
    "conservative": "0.7448"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8220",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.530000",
  "snapshot_seq": 26255,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.530000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 1
}