Galedra
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Claim

Trump’s takeover caused the Kennedy Center’s current financial crisis.

Type CAUSAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 5060

Referenced 145 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 99, shared 45. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Government · 56fe4c61 Business · 56fe4c61

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9408 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

4 independent evidence lineages · review checks 3 of 4 · stability LOW

Main unresolved issue: 7 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:f49ad880-119d-8e38-b1f6-be28159538c8

Not yet independently audited.This assessment depends heavily on modeling choices.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The excerpt attributes a catastrophic revenue drop as a consequence of Trump’s takeover. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: An arts-management expert reviewing internal records attributed the revenue collapse to Trump’s takeover.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.9408 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability LOW · 7 sources, 4 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:8dd143ca5d479e0e354a96fd3e6e0adef7f44a0c1bd37fca2f4e0cf7b77ceed0

Last changed at entry seq 10628; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
ab163630 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
01227967 support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.378000 0.378000
628600b7 qualify relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.180000 0.000000 (non directional)
6ce228fb support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.153000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept ab163630)
4cfa6711 support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.080000 1.080000
29decf16 support relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 2 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 2 0.700000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.126000 0.126000
56d2e73d qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.35 → log-odds -0.619039 + 3.384000 (the counted weights) = 2.764961 → probability 0.9408

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8519 to 0.9777, a spread of 0.1258.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
4917351cab163630

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes900cff44
opposing search doneyes6da7dda9
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes01227967, 4cfa6711

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The excerpt attributes a catastrophic revenue drop as a consequence of Trump’s takeover. ce323baa

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 4917351c

Qualifier: The Kennedy Center disputed that attribution and blamed previous leadership for its financial problems. 2e3c823d

Qualifier: Taylor says Trump's takeover caused a catastrophic revenue drop, but the passage names neither the Kennedy Center nor a financial crisis. 8dcf38d4

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 6da7dda9

Review checks: 3 of 4. coverage:f49ad880-119d-8e38-b1f6-be28159538c8

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
5060APPENDED
5061ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
5096LINK_EVIDENCEby 56fe4c61 (accepted)
5098LINK_EVIDENCEby 56fe4c61 (accepted)
5100LINK_EVIDENCEby 56fe4c61 (accepted)
5102LINK_EVIDENCEby 56fe4c61 (accepted)
6612TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)
8242TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
10627TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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      "group": null,
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      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "b33da867-ef27-8c6c-b975-07604cfa6711",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "25354de4-f8b4-85fc-9fa4-ad304772258f",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
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      "relevance": "STRONG",
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      "interpretive_steps": 0
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    {
      "link": "de7af8b7-7136-8b21-b705-d44a29decf16",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "4cef5c95-b033-8589-b71c-2d2130151222",
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      "relevance": "WEAK",
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      "interpretive_steps": 2
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    {
      "link": "e1c2ca58-f0df-887d-a251-dfa156d2e73d",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "90ca8ce2-9506-811e-8b15-cf6a8dcf38d4",
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  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.35",
  "variants": {
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    "permissive": "0.9777",
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  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "LOW",
  "claim_type": "CAUSAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9408",
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  "evidence_sum": "3.384000",
  "snapshot_seq": 10628,
  "prior_log_odds": "-0.619039",
  "support_groups": 4,
  "model_dependent": true,
  "review_coverage": "0.75",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
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    "opposing_search_done": {
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  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.764961",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 7
}