Galedra
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Claim

Trump's September 18, 2026 Oval Office event began at 3:29 p.m.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 5952

Referenced 88 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 85, shared 2. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Government · e82bf250

Assessment

Contradicted

Score: 0.1419 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 3 counted

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 3 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:f87d0e22-597c-891d-b6cd-9e8eff0c20cc

Not yet independently audited.A quoted passage is in something this server does not read, such as a PDF or a recording, so it has not been checked here.

Why?

Strongest counted contradiction: The excerpt records the first logged segment at 4:04:42 p.m. on September 18, 2026, not 3:29 p.m. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage gives 4:04:42 p.m. on 09/18/26 for the White House clip, not 3:29 p.m., and doesn't identify it as the Oval Office event.

Review gaps: independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that supports this claim would move it from Contradicted to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.1419 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Contradicted · Review checks: 3 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 3 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:2d3e8f6d0b633d17d3985c1f6e26723240d9aeb5ddac4b38ea4c666d5b635f91

Last changed at entry seq 10569; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
1b1cae89 contradict relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
c46bea45 qualify relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.459000 0.000000 (non directional)
0ff02007 contradict relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.180000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 1b1cae89)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + -1.800000 (the counted weights) = -1.800000 → probability 0.1419

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.2210 to 0.0879, a spread of 0.1331.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

None.

Evidence against

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
eb5c0dd51b1cae89

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 3 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyes6eac8145
opposing search doneyes9982c540
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes1b1cae89, c46bea45, 0ff02007

Summary

Contradicted. The main contradiction is: The excerpt records the first logged segment at 4:04:42 p.m. on September 18, 2026, not 3:29 p.m. 7b6cbca6

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. eb5c0dd5

Qualifier: The transcript's first logged segment of the Oval Office exchange begins at 4:04 p.m. on September 18, 2026. 10b46e51

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 9982c540

Review checks: 3 of 4. coverage:f87d0e22-597c-891d-b6cd-9e8eff0c20cc

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
5952APPENDED
5953ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
6202LINK_EVIDENCEby e82bf250 (accepted)
6566TASK_RESULTby 8b5e81bf (accepted)
8194TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "f87d0e22-597c-891d-b6cd-9e8eff0c20cc",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "885da958-5348-8278-b1a7-14931b1cae89",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "1f23a1e2-2ccc-866f-9e0f-35d47b6cbca6",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "92344cd3-8c06-8359-a0e2-35b0c46bea45",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "1342a52d-fb3a-847a-804d-a3e710b46e51",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.459000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "kept": "885da958-5348-8278-b1a7-14931b1cae89",
      "link": "d9e6e277-b548-8317-90c4-0e510ff02007",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "613aabbb-3433-8294-988e-9a0ceb5c0dd5",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "magnitude": "0.180000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.0879",
    "conservative": "0.2210"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.1419",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "-1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 10569,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 0,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.75",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "CONTRADICTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c6b2-86f0-7fe2-8144-bcb66eac8145"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c6b2-86de-796d-a604-a8de9982c540"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "885da958-5348-8278-b1a7-14931b1cae89",
        "92344cd3-8c06-8359-a0e2-35b0c46bea45",
        "d9e6e277-b548-8317-90c4-0e510ff02007"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 1,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "-1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}