As of snapshot 27745 under ledger-default@0.3.0.
| Claim | Type | Assessment | Score | Review checks | References |
|---|
| Nvidia disclosed $99 billion in equity investments and $25 billion in additional equity investment commitments as of July 26, 2026. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Supported |
0.9637 |
1 of 4 |
172 |
| Emad Mostaque's Champion proposal allocates 10% of a local AI and robotics company's equity to residents under 21 and issues additional equity to children born later. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
0.9970 |
1 of 4 |
186 |
| The Navier–Stokes equations describe fluid motion and are used in aircraft design, weather forecasting, and the study of blood flow. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
0.9839 |
1 of 4 |
164 |
| John Smart's transcension hypothesis proposes that advanced civilizations move toward computationally dense “inner space,” which could help explain the Fermi paradox. |
TEXTUAL |
Supported |
0.9747 |
1 of 4 |
147 |
| Future Vision XPRIZE received more than 2,500 film trailers and treatments, narrowed them to 65 semifinalists and five finalists who will screen trailers at Moonshots LIVE. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
0.9949 |
1 of 4 |
191 |
| At Tesla's October 2024 Cybercab unveiling, Elon Musk said the vehicle would cost under $30,000. |
HISTORICAL |
Supported |
0.9851 |
0 of 4 |
197 |
| Demis Hassabis shared half of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for developing AlphaFold2, an AI system for protein structure prediction. |
HISTORICAL |
Supported |
0.8642 |
1 of 4 |
177 |
| People should have more children, and building fully integrated childcare that lowers the cost of raising them is the single biggest thing anyone could do for humanity. |
NORMATIVE |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
100 |
| The Club of Rome's Limits to Growth, published in the early 1970s, rested on the false premise that humans would overcrowd the planet's scarce surface area and thereby degrade living conditions for everyone. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Contradicted |
0.1780 |
3 of 4 |
209 |
| More than 150,000 people die on Earth each day. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Supported |
0.9963 |
3 of 4 |
163 |
| The United States is largely insulated from the ageing shock because it receives large numbers of working-age immigrants and few aged over 65. |
CAUSAL |
Unresolved |
0.5654 |
3 of 4 |
268 |
| Global ageing figures understate the effect in China and Europe because they are averaged with India and parts of Africa that still have high birth rates. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Supported |
0.9924 |
3 of 4 |
162 |
| China is moving to robots out of necessity because of the demographic consequences of its one child policy, with Japan as the earlier preview. |
CAUSAL |
Supported |
0.9926 |
2 of 4 |
217 |
| The sequence of education, career and retirement will evaporate, replaced by repeated cycles of learning, creation and sabbatical. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
102 |
| Longevity should be treated as economic policy rather than a luxury, because a healthy 80-year-old is an economic contributor rather than a pension liability. |
NORMATIVE |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
132 |
| Fewer working-age people supporting more retirees will put severe economic pressure on pensions and healthcare in every developed economy. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
0 of 4 |
86 |
| The global population over 65 is projected to grow from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion by 2060, accounting for more than half of all population growth in that period. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Contradicted |
0.0796 |
3 of 4 |
211 |
| Robots will be the biggest investment class ever seen. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
98 |
| The robotaxi market will be won by whoever has the lowest operating and production cost, and nothing currently competes with Tesla on those. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
93 |
| Distributed robotaxi ownership has a near-zero marginal cost of adding capacity, as Airbnb does against hotels, making it superior to centralised fleet ownership. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Supported |
0.8949 |
2 of 4 |
179 |
| Platform owners heavily subsidise the success of their earliest franchisees to build momentum, as with early Starbucks franchises. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Contradicted |
0.0796 |
3 of 4 |
195 |
| Owning a fleet of robotaxis or humanoid robots is becoming the franchising path to wealth that laundromats and restaurant franchises were decades ago. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Unresolved |
0.5825 |
2 of 4 |
257 |
| Elon Musk previously described a Tesla fleet model combining Uber and Airbnb in which owners add or subtract their own car from the fleet. |
ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF |
Supported |
0.9683 |
3 of 4 |
164 |
| The Tesla Cybercab is projected to cost $30,000. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Insufficient evidence |
— |
0 of 4 |
162 |
| Tesla has opened an official interest form for businesses wanting to buy Cybercab fleets and build mobility hubs and charging infrastructure for the robotaxi network, with no pricing or delivery terms announced. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
0.9908 |
3 of 4 |
151 |
| Elon Musk is building the most vertically integrated company the world has seen, with supply chain control reaching down to turning raw sand into chips. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Leans contradicted |
0.2073 |
3 of 4 |
178 |
| Mercor now has 50,000 to 100,000 individual contributors operating effectively as small companies, in India and Brazil. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Leans contradicted |
0.2854 |
2 of 4 |
191 |
| Economics needs to flip from being scarcity-based to abundance-based, because bits and soon atoms can be rearranged at will. |
NORMATIVE |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
82 |
| The one-person company will not become the norm; the ten-person company and collectives of companies will. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
123 |
| Organizations begin to lose alignment once they pass about 12 people and again once they pass about 150. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Supported |
0.9978 |
3 of 4 |
188 |
| Dario Amodei has described an end state in which a single company such as Anthropic constitutes all private enterprise. |
ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF |
Leans contradicted |
0.2650 |
2 of 4 |
196 |
| Sam Altman posted on social media within 24 hours of this recording expressing surprise that OpenAI had solved Navier-Stokes. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
0.9630 |
3 of 4 |
183 |
| Sam Altman said that in the future an AI should be running OpenAI. |
ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF |
Supported |
0.9654 |
3 of 4 |
137 |
| A frontier AI lab is already running its own market-beating hedge fund strategy on an internal model. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Contradicted |
0.0739 |
3 of 4 |
163 |
| Frontier labs walling off their most capable internal models pushes toward larger firms, the opposite of the Coasean prediction. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Leans supported |
0.6128 |
3 of 4 |
203 |
| Legal entities will eventually be able to be owned by AI agents in Argentina and elsewhere. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
91 |
| Salim Ismail and Ted Shelton coined the term fiduciary wedge for the reasons a legal entity is still needed once coordination is automated: liability, fiduciary duty, proprietary data ownership, learning loops, brand and purpose. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
0.9381 |
3 of 4 |
151 |
| Under Coasean economics transaction costs determine firm size, so transaction costs falling to zero implies firm size falling toward zero. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Supported |
0.8336 |
3 of 4 |
199 |
| The dissolution of the hierarchical firm is the biggest organizational shift since the industrial revolution. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Leans supported |
0.7146 |
3 of 4 |
234 |
| AI does not merely automate the firm but attacks the economic reason firms exist, turning the firm into a protocol coordinating a community of agents and humans. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Supported |
0.8888 |
3 of 4 |
155 |
| Uber's mission-critical function of matching driver and passenger happens outside Uber's organizational boundary. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Contradicted |
0.0141 |
3 of 4 |
144 |
| Salim Ismail and his co-authors argued in their 2023 book Exponential Organizations 2.0 that Coase's law was already breaking. |
TEXTUAL |
Supported |
0.8581 |
3 of 4 |
115 |
| MIT and Harvard researchers have published work on what happens when AI agents make transactions nearly free, which they call the Coasean singularity. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
0.9972 |
3 of 4 |
140 |
| Coase's answer was that transactions are expensive, making it cheaper to hire employees than to negotiate every task on the open market, so companies are a workaround for transaction costs. |
TEXTUAL |
Supported |
0.9859 |
3 of 4 |
153 |
| In 1937 the economist Ronald Coase asked why companies exist at all, and he won a Nobel Prize for that work. |
HISTORICAL |
Supported |
0.9995 |
4 of 4 |
184 |
| When societies reach abundance, people end up doing four things: food, art, music and sex. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Leans supported |
0.7146 |
3 of 4 |
141 |
| Half the population of the United States cannot put together $500 in an emergency. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Contradicted |
0.0313 |
3 of 4 |
104 |
| There are no stationary competitive moats during a singularity, only temporary dynamical ones that must be sequenced. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Leans contradicted |
0.2854 |
3 of 4 |
158 |
| Elon Musk's operation is willing to pay up to $600,000 for top electricians and plumbers to build Colossus in Tennessee, for jobs lasting one to two years before automation. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Contradicted |
0.1888 |
2 of 4 |
179 |
| Within a few years humanoid robots will make HVAC engineering as automatable as spreadsheet management and accounting. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
90 |
| Every profession as currently constituted will be automated, and only the sequencing differs. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
96 |
| Becoming excellent at building data centres and cooling systems and reinvesting the proceeds into AI companies is a better life plan than pursuing an accounting degree. |
NORMATIVE |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
97 |
| Andrew Yang has said there will be a large resurgence of the skilled trades. |
ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF |
Supported |
0.9683 |
3 of 4 |
144 |
| Elon Musk said at the G20 in early September 2026 that a robot can do the work of five humans. |
ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF |
Supported |
0.9211 |
2 of 4 |
138 |
| The United States government should run a massive infrastructure programme to build 100 million robots owned by the people. |
NORMATIVE |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
89 |
| Emad Mostaque put forward a Champion proposal in which every child owns equity in the robots at a nominal pre-money valuation. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Insufficient evidence |
— |
0 of 4 |
96 |
| AI will not create jobs fast enough to offset the ones it displaces, though it can create abundance. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
91 |
| AI models have reached a capability level at which an entire digital workforce could be replicated within a year. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
93 |
| In China, a company that dismisses workers must attempt to retrain them for AI roles and pays either way. |
LEGAL |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
102 |
| The predicted wave of white collar job disruption did not happen because the big AI labs actively chose against it under pressure from the White House. |
CAUSAL |
Contradicted |
0.0183 |
3 of 4 |
179 |
| One concrete mixing truck replaces about a hundred workers shovelling concrete. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Contradicted |
0.1419 |
2 of 4 |
142 |
| Within the million AI-related jobs, co-pilot roles roughly double a worker's efficiency while a separate subset manages tens to hundreds of agents as if they were employees. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Supported |
0.8233 |
3 of 4 |
138 |
| Anyone worried about their job should make becoming AI literate and learning the tools their number one focus. |
NORMATIVE |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
95 |
| Studies show that around 74 per cent of work in large companies is coordination work, which Erik Brynjolfsson calls white collar drudgery. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Leans contradicted |
0.2854 |
3 of 4 |
229 |
| In Principal Financial Group data covering over 100,000 small business clients, more than 60 per cent were adding jobs because of AI and 1.4 per cent were losing jobs because of AI. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Contradicted |
0.0018 |
3 of 4 |
142 |
| Eric Schmidt said that AI-exposed jobs are growing faster and paying better. |
ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF |
Supported |
0.8233 |
3 of 4 |
169 |
| Occupations expected to face AI disruption, including paralegals and market research analysts, have continued to grow. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Contradicted |
0.0879 |
3 of 4 |
156 |
| Roughly $500 billion in additional annual spending on chips, servers, data centres, cooling and power infrastructure is supporting demand for electricians, HVAC specialists and technicians. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Supported |
0.9914 |
3 of 4 |
198 |
| LinkedIn estimated that 640,000 AI-specific jobs were created between 2023 and 2025. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Supported |
0.9927 |
2 of 4 |
164 |
| Roughly one million professional positions in the United States are now classified as AI jobs. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Supported |
0.9526 |
3 of 4 |
203 |
| The AI economy is now large and self-contained enough that it will mostly leave the legacy economy alone rather than destroying white collar jobs. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
94 |
| Anthropic and OpenAI going public will create a wave of new centimillionaires and billionaires who become the largest source of seed and Series A capital. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
111 |
| Alexander Wissner-Gross coined a term for the eleven companies at the heart of the innermost loop of the economy, which include the Microsoft and FAANG companies plus SpaceX, Tesla and Broadcom. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
0.9381 |
2 of 4 |
124 |
| The largest AI companies now hold more than $20 trillion in liquidity that they intend to recycle into reinforcing their positions. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Contradicted |
0.0915 |
2 of 4 |
166 |
| JP Morgan is small relative to Nvidia both in absolute terms and in the volume of new investment decisions it will make this year. |
COMPARATIVE |
Supported |
0.9995 |
3 of 4 |
230 |
| Abundance in healthcare, utility pricing, food, shelter and education is downstream of giving everyone universal basic computing. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Leans supported |
0.6128 |
3 of 4 |
167 |
| South Korea has announced universal AI access for all its people through a consortium. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
0.9997 |
3 of 4 |
144 |
| China is the bellwether for universal basic compute, and state-issued redistribution of AI tokens will eventually extend to all of humanity. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
103 |
| Crypto tokens are essentially irrelevant in China. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Contradicted |
0.0266 |
3 of 4 |
150 |
| AI will never become too cheap to meter, because use cases expand as fast as unit costs fall. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
0 of 4 |
95 |
| Intelligence is becoming infrastructure, a foundational layer beneath other activity. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Supported |
0.9054 |
3 of 4 |
122 |
| The average Chinese person together with their AI will be smarter than the average American together with theirs. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
93 |
| A rampant anti-AI counterculture will emerge in the United States, probably led by Bernie Sanders. |
FORECAST |
Not assessed |
— |
1 of 4 |
88 |
| When the personal computer arrived, a large fraction of high school students deliberately ignored it. |
HISTORICAL |
Leans contradicted |
0.2854 |
3 of 4 |
164 |
| The amygdala's scanning for danger gives humans a preponderance for focusing on bad news and treating the unfamiliar as dangerous. |
CAUSAL |
Leans supported |
0.6982 |
3 of 4 |
236 |
| Restaurants in China hand customers compute credits after a meal. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
0.9999 |
2 of 4 |
158 |
| China Telecom sells access to 142 AI models in the manner of a mobile data plan. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
0.9997 |
3 of 4 |
180 |
| Banks in China give AI tokens as credit card rewards. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
1.0000 |
3 of 4 |
208 |
| Pairing Fountain Life's testing with healthy living changes improved members' brain age by 26 per cent. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Contradicted |
0.0532 |
3 of 4 |
152 |
| Advanced testing found that one quarter of Fountain Life's members had advanced brain age. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Supported |
0.9985 |
3 of 4 |
188 |
| Conservative estimates hold that 45 per cent of dementia cases are entirely preventable. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Supported |
0.9971 |
3 of 4 |
223 |
| Moonshots Live tickets cost $1,500, with 100 scholarships set aside for young builders. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Supported |
0.9955 |
3 of 4 |
140 |
| Moonshots Live will feature interviews with Palmer Luckey, creator of Oculus and founder of Anduril; Ben Lamm, CEO of Colossal; and Astro Teller. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
0.9734 |
3 of 4 |
142 |
| The AI investment cycle is roughly in its third inning of nine. |
INTERPRETIVE |
Supported |
0.9177 |
2 of 4 |
220 |
| The Future of Vision XPRIZE judges include Neil deGrasse Tyson, Neal Stephenson, Rod Roddenberry and Mira Lane of Google. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
0.8581 |
3 of 4 |
137 |
| Over 5,000 teams registered for the Future of Vision XPRIZE, which has been narrowed to 25 entries and will end with five finalists showing three-minute film trailers. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Insufficient evidence |
— |
1 of 4 |
138 |
| The Build with Gemini XPRIZE is the largest hackathon in history by a wide margin. |
COMPARATIVE |
Supported |
0.9908 |
3 of 4 |
162 |
| 26,000 teams entered the Build with Gemini XPRIZE. |
QUANTITATIVE |
Insufficient evidence |
— |
1 of 4 |
151 |
| The Build with Gemini XPRIZE asked teams worldwide to pick a problem affecting 100,000 people and build, from a clean sheet in under 90 days, the company with the greatest revenue. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Supported |
0.9734 |
3 of 4 |
162 |
| About 25 Star Trek cast members and crew will attend the documentary premiere in downtown Los Angeles on the evening of 24 September 2026, an event limited to 550 people. |
OBSERVATIONAL |
Contradicted |
0.0946 |
3 of 4 |
150 |
Galedra