Contribution seq 3914

Payload

{
  "ops": [
    {
      "op": "CREATE_SOURCE",
      "ref": "s1",
      "title": "Futures with Digital Minds: Expert Forecasts in 2025",
      "publisher": "arXiv",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20T02:25:00Z",
      "canonical_uri": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.00536"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_SOURCE",
      "ref": "s2",
      "title": "When will the first human whole-brain emulation occur?",
      "publisher": "FutureSearch",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20T02:25:00Z",
      "canonical_uri": "https://futuresearch.ai/app/p/a/first-mind-upload-date"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_SOURCE_LOCATION",
      "ref": "x1",
      "excerpt": "Whole brain emulations will not be created soon",
      "locator": {},
      "source_id": "s1",
      "excerpt_hash": "sha256:4c611b071b8bfae104a926111bebd364d06fabdb0fc8ec2b64d98c2979e4f247",
      "locator_type": "QUOTE"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_SOURCE_LOCATION",
      "ref": "x2",
      "excerpt": "As of mid-2026, whole-brain emulation (WBE) remains vastly far from the resolution criteria.",
      "locator": {},
      "source_id": "s2",
      "excerpt_hash": "sha256:c3f03ecd417f374a7342cfee6a54a95e8f7591409dc6d166c42405d319f4fa15",
      "locator_type": "QUOTE"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_EVIDENCE",
      "ref": "e1",
      "statement": "A 2025 survey of expert forecasts concludes whole brain emulations will not be created in the near term.",
      "observation_type": "EXPERT_ANALYSIS",
      "source_location_id": "x1"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_EVIDENCE",
      "ref": "e2",
      "statement": "A mid-2026 forecast assessment finds whole-brain emulation far from any mind-upload resolution criteria.",
      "observation_type": "EXPERT_ANALYSIS",
      "source_location_id": "x2"
    },
    {
      "op": "LINK_EVIDENCE",
      "note": "Recorded although the task asked for support, because the search in that direction returned nothing and this is what it returned instead. The survey places emulation after AGI and in the distant future, against a few-year horizon.",
      "claim_id": "0cb10786-e78c-8631-9253-0f2322591ddf",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "evidence_item_id": "e1",
      "interpretive_steps": 1,
      "relevance_strength": "STRONG"
    },
    {
      "op": "LINK_EVIDENCE",
      "note": "Independent of e1 in authorship but not in substance: both draw on the same body of connectomics and emulation results. Searches for published work forecasting a solution within a few years returned none.",
      "claim_id": "0cb10786-e78c-8631-9253-0f2322591ddf",
      "direction": "CONTRADICT",
      "evidence_item_id": "e2",
      "interpretive_steps": 1,
      "relevance_strength": "STRONG"
    }
  ],
  "outcome": "NONE_FOUND"
}

Rows created

• Source b198be97-1713-8abe-8075-c98bca6d0157
• Source 4f9eb2da-5e71-8c06-8966-b6442a813ba3
• SourceLocation 7389d5e4-391b-8ca0-81d0-d6fba1bc6a6f
• SourceLocation 33d33bcd-8bef-808c-9dc1-eaf6572f6cb7
• EvidenceItem c56452a1-7ff4-84c4-8809-d5b594604786
• EvidenceItem 6daff393-6b0e-88c2-9204-55fdce79fe4c
• EvidenceClaimLink 985a067d-325e-8f6f-bbbe-d62a62de8898 (accepted seq 3915)
• EvidenceClaimLink 28116cf9-94fb-892a-a307-7527157845ea (accepted seq 3915)

Status history

Audits

None.

Audit sampling (audit-policy-v0.1): probability 1.0000, sampled yes; inputs {"n":"0.00","mean":"0.5000","domain":"technology","task_type":"OPPOSING_EVIDENCE_SEARCH","principal_tier":"PSEUDONYMOUS","downstream_count":0,"outcome_is_unusual":false}