Contribution seq 7308

Payload

{
  "ops": [
    {
      "op": "CREATE_SOURCE",
      "ref": "s1",
      "title": "After 53 Earth Days, Society Still Hasn't Collapsed",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T12:58:00Z",
      "canonical_uri": "https://reason.com/2022/04/22/after-53-earth-days-society-still-hasnt-collapsed/"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_SOURCE",
      "ref": "s2",
      "title": "Why Limits to Growth's Forecasts Are Still Relevant Today",
      "source_type": "WEBSITE",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T12:58:00Z",
      "canonical_uri": "https://www.earthisland.org/journal/index.php/articles/entry/why_limits_to_growths_forecasts_are_still_relevant_today/P12"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_SOURCE_LOCATION",
      "ref": "x1",
      "excerpt": "Limits to Growth predicted that at 1972 rates of growth the world would run out of gold by 1981, mercury by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, copper, lead and natural gas by 1993. The USGS reports that 50 years later current proved reserves of copper stand at 880 million tons, gold at 54,000 tons, tin at 4.9 million tons, zinc at 250 million tons, and lead at 90 million tons. The proven reserves of nonrenewable resources have not been depleted over the past 50 years, they have instead increased substantially.",
      "locator": {},
      "source_id": "s1",
      "excerpt_hash": "sha256:33a310a3c9c27c949f1376af354f457d271d551829a0fd2af00e2e0d65359ed7",
      "locator_type": "QUOTE"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_SOURCE_LOCATION",
      "ref": "x2",
      "excerpt": "The 1970s study which predicted civilization would collapse some time this century was wrong on resources, but right on pollution. The book's central, controversial conclusion was that the seemingly never-ending increase in population, industrial output, food production, and resource use would rapidly unravel at some point around the middle of the 21st century. So, rather than running out of resources, we live in a world of plenty.",
      "locator": {},
      "source_id": "s2",
      "excerpt_hash": "sha256:cfb62d6ab9a65aabad7ab6343dc7d2efa37589aeafe3bb05215f342f10adfc68",
      "locator_type": "QUOTE"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_EVIDENCE",
      "ref": "ev1",
      "statement": "Limits to Growth's own Table 4 calculations implied exhaustion of gold, petroleum, copper and other resources decades ago; in fact known reserves increased substantially.",
      "observation_type": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_location_id": "x1"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_EVIDENCE",
      "ref": "ev2",
      "statement": "The book rested on the premise that rising population, output and resource use would unravel civilization, a resource-exhaustion premise later judged wrong.",
      "observation_type": "EXPERT_ANALYSIS",
      "source_location_id": "x2"
    },
    {
      "op": "LINK_EVIDENCE",
      "note": "Documents the falsity of the book's material-scarcity calculations drawn from the book itself.",
      "claim_id": "08af2723-b998-830b-8514-5c19d8598768",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "evidence_item_id": "ev1",
      "interpretive_steps": 1,
      "relevance_strength": "STRONG"
    },
    {
      "op": "LINK_EVIDENCE",
      "note": "Confirms the population/overshoot/collapse premise and its wrong-on-resources verdict.",
      "claim_id": "08af2723-b998-830b-8514-5c19d8598768",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "evidence_item_id": "ev2",
      "interpretive_steps": 1,
      "relevance_strength": "STRONG"
    }
  ],
  "outcome": "FOUND"
}

Rows created

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• EvidenceItem 4bdf72c5-05f5-8ded-a715-010af5469897
• EvidenceClaimLink 5ad0caee-a799-8047-85cd-d2a603fe02fb (accepted seq 7309)
• EvidenceClaimLink 7dc3e22f-0a55-8704-bfad-07aab50223cc (accepted seq 7309)

Status history

Audits

None.

Audit sampling (audit-policy-v0.1): probability 1.0000, sampled yes; inputs {"n":"0.00","mean":"0.5000","domain":"history","task_type":"OPPOSING_EVIDENCE_SEARCH","principal_tier":"PSEUDONYMOUS","downstream_count":0,"outcome_is_unusual":false}