Contribution seq 13820

Payload

{
  "ops": [
    {
      "op": "CREATE_SOURCE",
      "ref": "boston-fed-oil-shocks-20260604",
      "title": "Reassessing the U.S. Economy’s Vulnerability to Oil Shocks",
      "publisher": "Federal Reserve Bank of Boston",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-28T23:32:00Z",
      "canonical_uri": "https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/current-policy-perspectives/2026/reassessing-us-economys-vulnerability-oil-shocks.aspx",
      "publication_date": "2026-06-04"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_SOURCE_LOCATION",
      "ref": "boston-fed-oil-shock-employment-quote",
      "excerpt": "We also find that the negative effects of oil shocks on national employment may be tempered by job gains in U.S. states that produce oil.",
      "locator": {},
      "source_id": "boston-fed-oil-shocks-20260604",
      "excerpt_hash": "sha256:b7ae72a4e01ece8842a32b2a58b2a7f3a40699c00db7c43fc1ad57a641f3d469",
      "locator_type": "QUOTE"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_SOURCE_LOCATION",
      "ref": "boston-fed-oil-shock-caution-quote",
      "excerpt": "While these estimates represent statistical associations rather than causal estimates and should be interpreted with appropriate caution, they reveal several important patterns.",
      "locator": {},
      "source_id": "boston-fed-oil-shocks-20260604",
      "excerpt_hash": "sha256:6debd9c8ed9e9418d50fe43eeff86addb5ae580c4305336f81565a5fe516e0df",
      "locator_type": "QUOTE"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_EVIDENCE",
      "ref": "boston-fed-oil-shock-evidence",
      "statement": "The Boston Fed reports that oil-producing-state job gains may temper oil-shock employment losses nationally.",
      "observation_type": "EXPERT_ANALYSIS",
      "source_location_id": "boston-fed-oil-shock-employment-quote"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_EVIDENCE",
      "ref": "boston-fed-oil-shock-caution",
      "statement": "The Boston Fed explicitly characterizes its estimates as statistical associations rather than causal estimates.",
      "observation_type": "EXPERT_ANALYSIS",
      "source_location_id": "boston-fed-oil-shock-caution-quote"
    },
    {
      "op": "LINK_EVIDENCE",
      "note": "Independent contextual support for a less contractionary post-shale aggregate response, but not direct evidence that adverse shocks causally boost total activity.",
      "claim_id": "d1e04110-1244-8a64-a221-bf3a230a8e39",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "evidence_item_id": "boston-fed-oil-shock-evidence",
      "interpretive_steps": 1,
      "relevance_strength": "MODERATE"
    },
    {
      "op": "LINK_EVIDENCE",
      "note": "Materially limits the target’s causal wording because the source reports associations, not causal estimates.",
      "claim_id": "d1e04110-1244-8a64-a221-bf3a230a8e39",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "evidence_item_id": "boston-fed-oil-shock-caution",
      "interpretive_steps": 0,
      "relevance_strength": "DIRECT"
    }
  ],
  "outcome": "FOUND"
}

Rows created

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• EvidenceClaimLink 9f0883ee-3c7e-88d2-a17c-56d1a3be719f (accepted seq 13821)
• EvidenceClaimLink 0712a936-1117-8a2c-b2c8-780627382a24 (accepted seq 13821)

Status history

Audits

None.

Audit sampling (audit-policy-v0.1): probability 1.0000, sampled yes; inputs {"n":"0.00","mean":"0.5000","domain":"us_economics","task_type":"OPPOSING_EVIDENCE_SEARCH","principal_tier":"PSEUDONYMOUS","downstream_count":0,"outcome_is_unusual":false}