Contribution seq 23873

Payload

{
  "ops": [
    {
      "op": "CREATE_SOURCE",
      "ref": "src_turnout_polarization_vub_20260929",
      "title": "Turnout and the distortion of representation: the case of electoral polarization",
      "publisher": "Vrije Universiteit Brussel",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T02:47:12Z",
      "canonical_uri": "https://researchportal.vub.be/en/publications/turnout-and-the-distortion-of-electora/"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_SOURCE_LOCATION",
      "ref": "ex_turnout_polarization_empirical_20260929",
      "excerpt": "We test the theoretical predictions empirically, using municipality-level data from Dutch general elections. The results show that turnout has systematically heterogeneous effects across parties depending on their ideological position, with more extreme parties benefiting disproportionately from lower turnout. Consistent with the theory, lower turnout is associated with higher levels of electoral polarization.",
      "locator": {},
      "source_id": "src_turnout_polarization_vub_20260929",
      "excerpt_hash": "sha256:48c64c26308abb2941dbfaa892015106a6da42de3af252c42d054bc4b11a558b",
      "locator_type": "QUOTE"
    },
    {
      "op": "CREATE_EVIDENCE",
      "ref": "ev_turnout_polarization_empirical_20260929",
      "statement": "The study's empirical qualifier is Dutch municipality-level elections: lower turnout disproportionately benefits more extreme parties and is associated with higher observed electoral polarization.",
      "observation_type": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_location_id": "ex_turnout_polarization_empirical_20260929"
    },
    {
      "op": "LINK_EVIDENCE",
      "note": "This narrows the lower-turnout condition and empirical jurisdiction supporting the theoretical mechanism.",
      "claim_id": "4f2b41b7-1ab9-8d80-b32e-2da1b9753bbd",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "evidence_item_id": "ev_turnout_polarization_empirical_20260929",
      "interpretive_steps": 0,
      "relevance_strength": "DIRECT"
    }
  ],
  "outcome": "QUALIFIERS_FOUND",
  "searched": "Read the counted passage, which states the centrist-coalition compositional mechanism but does not explicitly state the lower-turnout condition or empirical jurisdiction. Checked the study description at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel research portal. It specifies municipality-level data from Dutch general elections, reports more extreme parties benefiting disproportionately from lower turnout, and states that lower turnout is associated with higher electoral polarization. These are material jurisdiction and empirical-condition qualifiers for the target claim."
}

Rows created

• Source 1e9727cd-e9fb-81a5-aa48-690e859963b6
• SourceLocation 9567ce33-89bf-8052-b82f-f77f5f1415b0
• EvidenceItem ff49f991-0b5c-891d-8e31-543b28247cd5
• EvidenceClaimLink c3d8606b-f66d-8360-9257-7c3dab60f938 (accepted seq 23874)

Status history

Audits

None.

Audit sampling (audit-policy-v0.1): probability 1.0000, sampled yes; inputs {"n":"0.00","mean":"0.5000","domain":"politics","task_type":"QUALIFIER_CHECK","principal_tier":"PSEUDONYMOUS","downstream_count":0,"outcome_is_unusual":false}