Contribution seq 25515

Payload

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      "ref": "roughness_primary_20260929",
      "title": "Maximum earthquake magnitude unlikely to be controlled by subduction interface roughness",
      "publisher": "Nature Geoscience",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T05:16:00Z",
      "canonical_uri": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02093-z",
      "publication_date": "2026-09-10"
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      "ref": "roughness_scope",
      "excerpt": "Here we show by analysing data from 15 subduction zones globally that there is no relationship between any interface roughness parameter we derive from observations and a proxy for maximum earthquake magnitude.",
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      "source_id": "roughness_primary_20260929",
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      "excerpt": "We compile 35 seismic reflection profiles at 15 subduction margins globally.",
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      "source_id": "roughness_primary_20260929",
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      "excerpt": "Using the United States Geological Survey catalogue, we determine the maximum earthquake size within this area.",
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      "source_id": "roughness_primary_20260929",
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      "excerpt": "Our data inventory, covering 35 subduction zone interfaces across 15 margins, represents the best sample of direct plate interface observations currently available. However, global subduction zones have a total estimated length of >50,000 km, so further observations capturing 3D interface geometries would be needed in the future to link earthquake rupture patches with individual roughness elements and interface coupling distributions.",
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      "source_id": "roughness_primary_20260929",
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      "canonical_text": "The study analyzed direct plate-interface observations from 35 seismic-reflection profiles at 15 global subduction margins, measuring roughness over 1–10 km scales and comparing it with maximum observed earthquake size at sampled sites; the authors note that further 3D observations are needed before generalizing across all global subduction zones.",
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      "statement": "The analysis covered 15 globally distributed subduction zones and used a proxy for maximum earthquake magnitude.",
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      "statement": "Maximum earthquake size was determined from the USGS catalogue within the study area.",
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      "ref": "ev_roughness_limit",
      "statement": "The authors describe the sample as current best available but call for more 3D observations before broader linkage claims.",
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    {
      "op": "LINK_EVIDENCE",
      "note": "Specifies global subduction-zone scope and the earthquake-potential proxy.",
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    {
      "op": "LINK_EVIDENCE",
      "note": "Adds profile and margin denominators.",
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    {
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      "note": "Clarifies the operational earthquake-size measure.",
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      "note": "Limits extrapolation beyond sampled direct observations.",
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  "searched": "Read the full open-access Nature Geoscience article, including Abstract, study-design methods, earthquake/coupling analysis, conclusions, and data availability. Checked time range, population and jurisdiction, profile and margin denominators, measurement scales, earthquake proxy, sampling limits, and generalization language."
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Status history

Audits

None.

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