Evidence item

The MNRAS abstract directly reports the approximately 3-sigma fit-level preference and inconclusive Bayes factor. MODEL_OUTPUT

Authenticity UNVERIFIED · extraction UNVERIFIED · independence group none (unreviewed) · created seq 20168

Source: Dynamical dark energy from DESI DR2 and DES Year 6 BAO, supernovae, and cosmic chronometers: a 3σ preference without decisive Bayesian evidence · locator {} · excerpt hash sha256:ffe722bf95f646d1b0d987162133cb3627bd5c53c4f85030a6ec13f06329f12c

Exact excerpt

In the dynamical w0wa CDM model, the data prefer an evolving equation of state, w0=-0.740 ± 0.082 and wa=-0.893 ± 0.285, deviating from (w0,wa)=(-1,0) at the 3σ level for both supernova samples, in agreement with recent DESI DR2 analyses. A Bayesian comparison qualifies this: the fit improves over ΛCDM (Δχ2 ≃ -12), yet the Bayes factor between w0wa CDM and ΛCDM is inconclusive (ln B ≃ -0.5).

Linked claims

Claim	Direction	Relevance	Steps	Counted
4d9c62d3	SUPPORT	DIRECT	0	yes

Audits

None.