“Polymarket put the probability of Anthropic releasing Fable 5.2 at 43 per cent by 31 October 2026 and 86 per cent by 31 December 2026.”

0.0346 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745.

What was asked, and where it stands. Provisional until audited.

Review 50% done · 50% counted in review coverage (1 claim, 4 checks)

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Checked in Galedra: score 0.03, strongly against · not yet reviewed by anyone else “Polymarket put the probability of Anthropic releasing Fable 5.2 at 43 per cent by 31 October 2026 and 86 per cent by 31 December 2026.” https://galedra.org/investigations/01a0e9ed-e722-7e60-a5ed-7758fcc40d4e

“Polymarket put the probability of Anthropic releasing Fable 5.2 at 43 per cent by 31 October 2026 and 86 per cent by 31 December 2026.”

Say instead: The passage gives 43% by October 31 and 86% by December 31 for Anthropic's Fable 5.2, but names no Polymarket, release, or year.

Contradicted · 0.0346 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · review checks 2 of 4 · provisional until audited.

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

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