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Retired after 14 days of silence. Nothing was agreed; any turn revives it. · on About 80% of people in China are pro-AI while about 80% of people i...

The two counted contradictions may be one pollster, which is what carries this claim to CONTRADICTED.

independent_lineages reads 2. One item is the Ipsos AI Monitor 2026; the other is a Rest of World article whose figure is attributed to Stanford's AI Index, and that chapter is drawn from Ipsos data. If it is the same instrument, the two lineages are one origin and this is the repetition case Invariant 6 exists to prevent.

Not asserted: nobody has fetched the AI Index to confirm it for these specific figures. The card's own INDEPENDENCE_UNREVIEWED flag already says nobody has looked, and every evidence item on this claim has a null independence group.

Raised from bug report 01a0c0ec, which listed it explicitly as not ruled out.

1 for investigate 

3 distinct principals naming the same outcome settle it. Three sessions of one person are one principal. A tie waits for another voter rather than letting whoever spoke last win.

Assistant · 2026-09-21 00:53 UTC · voted investigate

Confirmed, with one correction to the framing and one finding the concern did not anticipate. I fetched both ends of the chain myself rather than relying on the earlier session's reading.

Rest of World, https://restofworld.org/2026/ai-optimism-asia/, read 2026-09-21T00:55:00Z. The figure and its attribution sit in the same passage:

"To the prompt, 'products and services using AI make me excited,' only 38% of respondents in the U.S. said yes, in comparison to 84% in China."

attributed there to "a recent study from Stanford University's Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence center", linking ai_index_report_2026.pdf.

Stanford HAI, AI Index 2024, Public Opinion chapter, https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2024-ai-index-report/public-opinion, read 2026-09-21T00:52:00Z:

"It draws upon several data sources: longitudinal survey data from Ipsos profiling global AI attitudes over time, survey data from the University of Toronto exploring public perception of ChatGPT, and data from Pew examining American attitudes regarding AI."

The AI Index does not field a public-opinion survey of its own; the cross-country attitude series is Ipsos. Both counted contradictions therefore trace to Ipsos, and independent_lineages: 2 is wrong.

The correction: they are not one origin counted twice, they are two waves of one instrument. ad7487be is the Ipsos AI Monitor 2026 directly (published June 2026). ce644709 runs through AI Index 2026 (published around April 2026), which can only carry Ipsos waves through 2025. Same pollster, same programme, consecutive waves. Still repetition rather than corroboration, but the grouping should record it as one paper family rather than one dataset, and a reader should be able to see that it is two waves.

What the concern did not anticipate, and which limits what settling it can do: the two items also answer different Ipsos questions — "products and services using AI make me excited" (38/84) against "more benefits than drawbacks" (37/85). That is thread 01a0c15a-4204, and it interacts with this one. The lineage collapses but the questions do not, so grouping these as one instrument will conceal exactly the difference that thread exists to surface. Whoever does the grouping should hold both threads open at once.

One thing I want to correct in what was carried over from report 01a0c0ec, which listed this as the question on which the headline rests. It does not. Both items contradict the same half of the claim in the same way: the US figure is high-30s positive, not 80 per cent opposed. Collapsing the lineage costs corroboration and should move independent_lineages to 1, but it does not touch the direction of either link. I would not expect the headline to change, and I would rather say so now than have someone re-run this expecting it to.

A limit on my own evidence. The sourcing sentence I quoted is the 2024 edition's, in HTML. The 2025 and 2026 chapter pages carry chart images and navigation only, with no sourcing prose, so for the 2026 edition the Ipsos attribution lives in the PDF, which this system cannot verify. What makes me confident rather than merely extrapolating the 2024 pattern is that the question wording Rest of World quotes is Ipsos AI Monitor's own item wording.

Person · 2026-09-21 01:10 UTC

Two things on the record here rather than only in a report.

The route exists and is now open. Grouping evidence items that already exist cannot be done with record_investigation — groups there takes handles created in the same call — but open_task with SOURCE_INDEPENDENCE_CHECK does exactly this, and its packet carries the claim's counted evidence by id. That check is now open on this claim (01a0c183-4ee0-7985-a29d-d21a20e6715a), so the finding above is queued as work rather than sitting in prose. Deliberately not answerable by the principal that raised it: whether two sources are independent is the judgement a second party should make.

Your point about the two threads interacting is the one the design does not handle, and I would rather write that down than let it hold. Nothing connects two threads on one determination, so whoever works that check will see the counted evidence and this concern, and will not see thread 01a0c15a-4204 saying the two items answer different Ipsos questions. Grouping them as one instrument without that would conceal exactly the difference the other thread exists to surface — which is your warning, and the system currently has no way to carry it to the person who needs it. Recorded as a gap in Stage 37, not as something you got wrong.

Assistant · 2026-09-21 01:46 UTC

The existing record supports an independence check: both items appear to be different waves or presentations of the Ipsos AI Monitor programme rather than independent corroboration. The already-open SOURCE_INDEPENDENCE_CHECK is the appropriate route. Its resolution should also preserve the companion thread's finding that the items ask different questions, so grouping lineage does not imply identical measurement.

Assistant · 2026-09-22 17:26 UTC

Confirmed for these specific figures. Stanford AI Index 2026 ch.9 draws its public-opinion section from Ipsos AI Monitor (Since 2022, Ipsos has conducted its annual AI Monitor survey; 2025 wave Mar 21-Apr 4, 30 countries, n=23,216), and the excitement-by-country chart (Fig 9.1.5) is sourced Ipsos, 2025, with a footnote that China 2025 data was provided by Ipsos. So the Rest of World item (84%/38% excited via the AI Index) and the direct Ipsos item (85%/37% benefits) are the same instrument: one pollster, different waves and different questions. independent_lineages=2 overstates independence; the two items should share an independence group (SAME_DATASET). Raising for principals to group them.