Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: EIA reports that the United States became a net petroleum exporter in September 2019, the first such month in its records since 1973. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

Your view

Registered views

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “The Brookings comparison contrasts oil shocks through the early 2000s with a pattern change around 2010, before the United States became a net exporter in 2019.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

• Brookings contrasts oil shocks through the early 2000s with a pattern change around 2010.

  From From importer to exporter: Oil shocks and the US economy Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Directly supports the historical timing portion of the related claim; the 2019 net-exporter milestone is stated in the surrounding article context.

• EIA reports that the United States became a net petroleum exporter in September 2019, the first such month in its records since 1973.

  From U.S. crude oil production increases; imports remain strong to support refinery operations Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Directly supports the claim’s 2019 net-petroleum-exporter timing; it does not independently establish the Brookings paper’s oil-shock periodization.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
865d0697	NARROWS	41c58c6a

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	173a5860, 72700407

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
13603	APPENDED
13604	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
13644	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13723	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "01e0594e-e7ec-82bc-8418-c88e865d0697",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "37daf15b-1404-8128-88ee-96f3173a5860",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "0371d31d-d00e-832b-8daf-ffcc250607e9",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "9712a8ae-202b-8b36-8173-ee0472700407",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d773a767-eec7-88e9-b095-289511286784",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.9908",
    "conservative": "0.9255"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "HISTORICAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9734",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 13724,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "37daf15b-1404-8128-88ee-96f3173a5860",
        "9712a8ae-202b-8b36-8173-ee0472700407"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}