Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Economics · 1efd24fe Prices and inflation · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The passage directly states that after the shale-era shift, adverse global oil-supply shocks need not generate a U.S. recession. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: Brookings reports a post-shale reversal in the aggregate response to adverse oil-supply shocks, while noting gains and losses are not uniform across households and firms.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “The Brookings paper reports that adverse global oil-supply shocks no longer reliably generate U.S. recessions after the country’s shift to net oil exports.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026
• “A Brookings paper reports that after the United States became a net oil exporter, adverse global oil-supply shocks no longer reliably caused U.S. recessions...” · 2 claims · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

• Brookings reports a post-shale reversal in the aggregate response to adverse oil-supply shocks, while noting gains and losses are not uniform across households and firms.

  From From importer to exporter: Oil shocks and the US economy Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The passage directly states that a shock need no longer generate a U.S. recession.

• The paper directly links the U.S. importer-to-exporter transition with weakened and eventually expansionary oil-shock effects.

  From From Importer to Exporter: Oil Shocks and the U.S. Economy Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Primary conference-paper abstract corroborates the historical comparison.

• The passage directly states that after the shale-era shift, adverse global oil-supply shocks need not generate a U.S. recession.

  From From importer to exporter: Oil shocks and the US economy Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

• Brookings places the historical pattern change around 2010 and contrasts it with the pre-2000s period.

  From From importer to exporter: Oil shocks and the US economy Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The passage distinguishes the approximate pattern-change date from the later net-exporter status.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
e8d173ec		12b83054

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
865d0697	NARROWS	41c58c6a

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	ceaf0284, 94024073, 12b83054, 7e70b5f6

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
13555	APPENDED
13556	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
13563	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13595	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13601	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13603	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)