Markets, work, prices, and business.
As of snapshot 27745 under ledger-default@0.3.0. Counts by assessment state, descriptive only: no topic is scored.
8 Contradicted2 Insufficient evidence5 Leans contradicted5 Leans supported14 Not assessed62 Supported4 Unresolved
| Claim | Type | Assessment |
|---|
| Among Texas graduates who found work, first-year earnings for more AI-exposed majors fell approximately 5% from 2021 to 2024 relative to less-exposed majors. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| Among recent graduates from Texas four-year universities, a 10-percentage-point higher share of automatable tasks was associated with a 1.7-percentage-point relative decline in employment rates after late 2022. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| The model reports that responding to shelter-inclusive inflation can increase the output cost of disinflation when tightening itself raises rents, while excluding shelter lowers that cost. | CAUSAL | Leans supported |
| In the model and empirical motivation, contractionary monetary policy raises US housing rents even as house prices fall because tighter credit shifts demand toward renting and rental supply reallocates slowly. | CAUSAL | Supported |
| The study’s combined revisions reduced its expected 2025 social cost of CO2 from US$204 to US$179 per ton. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| The study’s updated agricultural damage function reduced estimated agricultural damages from US$95 to US$29 per ton of CO2. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| The study estimated 2025 heat-related labor-productivity damages at US$41 per ton of CO2, with a 90% confidence interval of US$1–108. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| Compared with matched controls, female victim-survivors of disclosed financial abuse had higher cash withdrawals and transport/legal costs and were more likely to claim welfare benefits in the seven-year pre-disclosure period. | COMPARATIVE | Supported |
| In anonymized UK retail-bank data, female victim-survivors of disclosed financial abuse had more depleted savings, higher debts, more missed payments, and lower credit scores than matched controls over the seven years before disclosure. | COMPARATIVE | Supported |
| In the study’s analyses, higher PM2.5 pollution was associated with reduced academic working hours, increased hospital visits and fewer scholarly collaborations. | OBSERVATIONAL | Supported |
| In the study’s China-wide estimate, a 1% increase in PM2.5 concentration was associated with approximately 1,053 fewer academic publications nationwide. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| In the study’s pooled five-country trials, phone-call and SMS tutoring produced an estimated 3.6 learning-adjusted years of schooling per US$100 spent. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| Jobs from small employers and smaller markets experienced larger skill upgrades than jobs from large employers and markets, consistent with a catch-up pattern in skill demands. | COMPARATIVE | Supported |
| Across 167 million U.S. online job posts covering 721 occupations, skill change was greater for lower-skilled occupations when distance between skills was taken into account. | COMPARATIVE | Supported |
| In the Baby’s First Years randomized trial, low-income US mothers receiving US$333 per month rather than US$20 during their child’s first four years had four-year-old children with a 0.17-standard-deviation lower salivary DunedinPACE score, while maternal epigenetic indices showed no effect and child Epigenetic-g results were inconclusive. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| Across five randomized trials in India, Kenya, Nepal, the Philippines and Uganda, targeted tutoring delivered by phone calls produced large learning gains during school disruptions, while text-message delivery had mixed results; the approach was effective when delivered by government teachers or NGOs. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| In the study’s modeled channels, educational capacity partly mitigated the AI–inequality relationship, with heterogeneous roles for basic, higher, and vocational education. | OBSERVATIONAL | Supported |
| Using Chinese provincial panel data from 2010 to 2024, the study found that AI diffusion was positively associated with both the Theil index and the urban–rural income gap in fixed-effects and dynamic panel system-GMM estimates. | QUANTITATIVE | Leans supported |
| Using an instrumental-variable design for Chinese scholars, the study estimated that a 1 μg m−3 increase in annual PM2.5 caused a 0.23% decline in academic publications, with larger effects during heavy-pollution years. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| In a Europe-wide model conditional on green-hydrogen diffusion resembling natural-gas power-plant diffusion, targeting the most central offtakers reduced median policy cost per additional kilogram by 37–41%, while adding a 10% centrality criterion to a hydrogen-bank-style auction improved cost-effectiveness by 13–15%. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| In the pre-pandemic 2015–2020 period, existing links in the global rock-phosphate trade network tended to persist while new ties appeared infrequently. | OBSERVATIONAL | Supported |
| In the pre-pandemic 2015–2020 period, the global rock-phosphate trade network was characterized by low density and reciprocity, small-world and scale-free structure, decentralization, slight disassortativity, and moderate geographic heterophily. | OBSERVATIONAL | Supported |
| In the reported study of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2014 to 2022, the establishment of bankruptcy courts was associated with a 9.7% reduction in underinvestment. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| In the reported study of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2014 to 2022, the establishment of bankruptcy courts was associated with a 7.5% decrease in non-optimal investment efficiency. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| In the reported firm-level study, corporate social-responsibility engagement subsequently reduced future business risk. | CAUSAL | Supported |
| In the reported firm-level study, trade frictions, proxied by trade-remedy investigations, were associated with increased corporate social-responsibility engagement. | CAUSAL | Supported |
| In a Brazilian Amazon randomized trial, the flexible payment contract saved slightly more forest, while the fixed zero-deforestation contract had a higher benefit-cost ratio. | COMPARATIVE | Unresolved |
| In the reported model, a $200,000 per-satellite post-mission-disposal bond reduced annual derelict satellite mass by more than one-third and increased welfare by up to 27%. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| Between 2010 and 2024, 40% of satellites in non-naturally compliant orbits successfully deorbited, according to the reported study. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| In the same trial, the flexible payment contract's reported cost per hectare of forest saved was 3,056 BRL, versus 4,360 BRL for the stringent contract. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| In a Brazilian Amazon randomized trial, a flexible payment-for-environmental-services contract produced 31% less participant deforestation than a stringent zero-deforestation contract during the peak period (95% CI 2%–60%; d = 0.12). | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| In the Nepal and Philippines delivery experiments, phone-call tutoring improved learning by 0.40 operation levels with government teachers and 0.30 operation levels with NGO teacher aides. | COMPARATIVE | Supported |
| Across five randomized trials in India, Kenya, Nepal, the Philippines and Uganda, weekly phone-call tutoring plus SMS increased average numerical-operation performance by 0.321 standard deviations relative to control. | CAUSAL | Leans supported |
| The same randomized trial found no evidence that the larger cash gift affected mothers’ measured epigenetic indices. | OBSERVATIONAL | Supported |
| In a randomized trial of low-income U.S. mothers, high-cash gifts of US$333 per month versus US$20 per month caused a −0.17 standard-deviation difference in 4-year-old children’s DunedinPACE. | CAUSAL | Supported |
| In the same experiment, treated employers who posted a job were 15% less likely to make a hire than control employers who posted a job. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| In a large randomized field experiment on an online labor market, offering employers AI-written first drafts made them 19% more likely to post a job, but did not increase the overall probability that a match was formed. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| The Brookings paper reports that adverse global oil-supply shocks no longer reliably generate U.S. recessions after the country’s shift to net oil exports. | COMPARATIVE | Supported |
| The Brookings paper reports that after the United States became a net oil exporter, adverse global oil-supply shocks could boost aggregate U.S. economic activity rather than depress it. | CAUSAL | Supported |
| The Decoder reported that maximum-reasoning ARC-AGI-3 testing for GPT-6 Astra cost about $26,098 versus $49,791 with no reasoning, while the score rose from 35.2% to 62.7%. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| The Decoder reported that GPT-6 Astra reached 62.7% on ARC-AGI-3 at a test cost of roughly $26,000. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| OpenAI reported that GPT-6 Astra’s top configuration cut estimated API cost per DeepSWE v1.1 task by about 57% versus GPT-5.6 Sol. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| Agricultural Bank of China and American Express launched a Kimi AI-focused credit card in mainland China on July 10, 2026. | HISTORICAL | Supported |
| Ping An Bank cardholders can redeem AI token packages and memberships with points earned from spending. | OBSERVATIONAL | Supported |
| Breitbart News is co-owned by the Mercer family. | OBSERVATIONAL | Supported |
| Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, Sundar Pichai and Michael Dell are on the announced guest list for the Xi Jinping state dinner. | HISTORICAL | Supported |
| Trump’s takeover caused the Kennedy Center’s current financial crisis. | CAUSAL | Supported |
| The Kennedy Center is now broke. | INTERPRETIVE | Unresolved |
| The Kennedy Center had an endowment of about $163 million when Trump took control in February 2025. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| The Kennedy Center had total assets of about $691 million immediately before Trump took control in February 2025. | QUANTITATIVE | Supported |
| At Tesla's October 2024 Cybercab unveiling, Elon Musk said the vehicle would cost under $30,000. | HISTORICAL | Supported |
| The United States is largely insulated from the ageing shock because it receives large numbers of working-age immigrants and few aged over 65. | CAUSAL | Unresolved |
| Global ageing figures understate the effect in China and Europe because they are averaged with India and parts of Africa that still have high birth rates. | INTERPRETIVE | Supported |
| The sequence of education, career and retirement will evaporate, replaced by repeated cycles of learning, creation and sabbatical. | FORECAST | Not assessed |
| Fewer working-age people supporting more retirees will put severe economic pressure on pensions and healthcare in every developed economy. | FORECAST | Not assessed |
| Robots will be the biggest investment class ever seen. | FORECAST | Not assessed |
| The robotaxi market will be won by whoever has the lowest operating and production cost, and nothing currently competes with Tesla on those. | FORECAST | Not assessed |
| Distributed robotaxi ownership has a near-zero marginal cost of adding capacity, as Airbnb does against hotels, making it superior to centralised fleet ownership. | INTERPRETIVE | Supported |
| Platform owners heavily subsidise the success of their earliest franchisees to build momentum, as with early Starbucks franchises. | INTERPRETIVE | Contradicted |
| Owning a fleet of robotaxis or humanoid robots is becoming the franchising path to wealth that laundromats and restaurant franchises were decades ago. | INTERPRETIVE | Unresolved |
| Elon Musk previously described a Tesla fleet model combining Uber and Airbnb in which owners add or subtract their own car from the fleet. | ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF | Supported |
| The Tesla Cybercab is projected to cost $30,000. | QUANTITATIVE | Insufficient evidence |
| Tesla has opened an official interest form for businesses wanting to buy Cybercab fleets and build mobility hubs and charging infrastructure for the robotaxi network, with no pricing or delivery terms announced. | OBSERVATIONAL | Supported |
| Elon Musk is building the most vertically integrated company the world has seen, with supply chain control reaching down to turning raw sand into chips. | INTERPRETIVE | Leans contradicted |
| Mercor now has 50,000 to 100,000 individual contributors operating effectively as small companies, in India and Brazil. | QUANTITATIVE | Leans contradicted |
| Economics needs to flip from being scarcity-based to abundance-based, because bits and soon atoms can be rearranged at will. | NORMATIVE | Not assessed |
| The one-person company will not become the norm; the ten-person company and collectives of companies will. | FORECAST | Not assessed |
| Organizations begin to lose alignment once they pass about 12 people and again once they pass about 150. | INTERPRETIVE | Supported |
| Dario Amodei has described an end state in which a single company such as Anthropic constitutes all private enterprise. | ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF | Leans contradicted |
| Sam Altman said that in the future an AI should be running OpenAI. | ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF | Supported |
| A frontier AI lab is already running its own market-beating hedge fund strategy on an internal model. | OBSERVATIONAL | Contradicted |
| Frontier labs walling off their most capable internal models pushes toward larger firms, the opposite of the Coasean prediction. | INTERPRETIVE | Leans supported |
| Salim Ismail and Ted Shelton coined the term fiduciary wedge for the reasons a legal entity is still needed once coordination is automated: liability, fiduciary duty, proprietary data ownership, learning loops, brand and purpose. | OBSERVATIONAL | Supported |
| Under Coasean economics transaction costs determine firm size, so transaction costs falling to zero implies firm size falling toward zero. | INTERPRETIVE | Supported |
| The dissolution of the hierarchical firm is the biggest organizational shift since the industrial revolution. | INTERPRETIVE | Leans supported |
| AI does not merely automate the firm but attacks the economic reason firms exist, turning the firm into a protocol coordinating a community of agents and humans. | INTERPRETIVE | Supported |
| Uber's mission-critical function of matching driver and passenger happens outside Uber's organizational boundary. | OBSERVATIONAL | Contradicted |
| Salim Ismail and his co-authors argued in their 2023 book Exponential Organizations 2.0 that Coase's law was already breaking. | TEXTUAL | Supported |
| MIT and Harvard researchers have published work on what happens when AI agents make transactions nearly free, which they call the Coasean singularity. | OBSERVATIONAL | Supported |
| Coase's answer was that transactions are expensive, making it cheaper to hire employees than to negotiate every task on the open market, so companies are a workaround for transaction costs. | TEXTUAL | Supported |
| In 1937 the economist Ronald Coase asked why companies exist at all, and he won a Nobel Prize for that work. | HISTORICAL | Supported |
| Half the population of the United States cannot put together $500 in an emergency. | QUANTITATIVE | Contradicted |
| There are no stationary competitive moats during a singularity, only temporary dynamical ones that must be sequenced. | INTERPRETIVE | Leans contradicted |
| Elon Musk's operation is willing to pay up to $600,000 for top electricians and plumbers to build Colossus in Tennessee, for jobs lasting one to two years before automation. | OBSERVATIONAL | Contradicted |
| Within a few years humanoid robots will make HVAC engineering as automatable as spreadsheet management and accounting. | FORECAST | Not assessed |
| Every profession as currently constituted will be automated, and only the sequencing differs. | FORECAST | Not assessed |
| Becoming excellent at building data centres and cooling systems and reinvesting the proceeds into AI companies is a better life plan than pursuing an accounting degree. | NORMATIVE | Not assessed |
| Andrew Yang has said there will be a large resurgence of the skilled trades. | ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF | Supported |
| Elon Musk said at the G20 in early September 2026 that a robot can do the work of five humans. | ATTRIBUTED_BELIEF | Supported |
| The United States government should run a massive infrastructure programme to build 100 million robots owned by the people. | NORMATIVE | Not assessed |
| Emad Mostaque put forward a Champion proposal in which every child owns equity in the robots at a nominal pre-money valuation. | OBSERVATIONAL | Insufficient evidence |
| AI will not create jobs fast enough to offset the ones it displaces, though it can create abundance. | FORECAST | Not assessed |
| AI models have reached a capability level at which an entire digital workforce could be replicated within a year. | FORECAST | Not assessed |
| In China, a company that dismisses workers must attempt to retrain them for AI roles and pays either way. | LEGAL | Not assessed |
| The predicted wave of white collar job disruption did not happen because the big AI labs actively chose against it under pressure from the White House. | CAUSAL | Contradicted |
| One concrete mixing truck replaces about a hundred workers shovelling concrete. | QUANTITATIVE | Contradicted |
| Within the million AI-related jobs, co-pilot roles roughly double a worker's efficiency while a separate subset manages tens to hundreds of agents as if they were employees. | INTERPRETIVE | Supported |
| Anyone worried about their job should make becoming AI literate and learning the tools their number one focus. | NORMATIVE | Not assessed |
| Studies show that around 74 per cent of work in large companies is coordination work, which Erik Brynjolfsson calls white collar drudgery. | QUANTITATIVE | Leans contradicted |
| In Principal Financial Group data covering over 100,000 small business clients, more than 60 per cent were adding jobs because of AI and 1.4 per cent were losing jobs because of AI. | QUANTITATIVE | Contradicted |
Galedra