As of snapshot 27745 under ledger-default@0.3.0. Counts by assessment state, descriptive only: no topic is scored.
6 Contradicted1 Leans supported4 Not assessed10 Supported
| Claim | Type | Assessment |
|---|
| The model reports that responding to shelter-inclusive inflation can increase the output cost of disinflation when tightening itself raises rents, while excluding shelter lowers that cost. | CAUSAL | Leans supported |
| In the model and empirical motivation, contractionary monetary policy raises US housing rents even as house prices fall because tighter credit shifts demand toward renting and rental supply reallocates slowly. | CAUSAL | Supported |
| Compared with matched controls, female victim-survivors of disclosed financial abuse had higher cash withdrawals and transport/legal costs and were more likely to claim welfare benefits in the seven-year pre-disclosure period. | COMPARATIVE | Supported |
| In anonymized UK retail-bank data, female victim-survivors of disclosed financial abuse had more depleted savings, higher debts, more missed payments, and lower credit scores than matched controls over the seven years before disclosure. | COMPARATIVE | Supported |
| In the pre-pandemic 2015–2020 period, existing links in the global rock-phosphate trade network tended to persist while new ties appeared infrequently. | OBSERVATIONAL | Supported |
| In the pre-pandemic 2015–2020 period, the global rock-phosphate trade network was characterized by low density and reciprocity, small-world and scale-free structure, decentralization, slight disassortativity, and moderate geographic heterophily. | OBSERVATIONAL | Supported |
| The Brookings paper reports that after the United States became a net oil exporter, adverse global oil-supply shocks could boost aggregate U.S. economic activity rather than depress it. | CAUSAL | Supported |
| Robots will be the biggest investment class ever seen. | FORECAST | Not assessed |
| The robotaxi market will be won by whoever has the lowest operating and production cost, and nothing currently competes with Tesla on those. | FORECAST | Not assessed |
| A frontier AI lab is already running its own market-beating hedge fund strategy on an internal model. | OBSERVATIONAL | Contradicted |
| Anthropic and OpenAI going public will create a wave of new centimillionaires and billionaires who become the largest source of seed and Series A capital. | FORECAST | Not assessed |
| The largest AI companies now hold more than $20 trillion in liquidity that they intend to recycle into reinforcing their positions. | QUANTITATIVE | Contradicted |
| JP Morgan is small relative to Nvidia both in absolute terms and in the volume of new investment decisions it will make this year. | COMPARATIVE | Supported |
| Crypto tokens are essentially irrelevant in China. | OBSERVATIONAL | Contradicted |
| The AI investment cycle is roughly in its third inning of nine. | INTERPRETIVE | Supported |
| Frontier labs are releasing models faster because Chinese open source models are at near parity with them and the labs need separation to win enterprise deals. | INTERPRETIVE | Supported |
| Polymarket put the probability of Anthropic releasing Fable 5.2 at 43 per cent by 31 October 2026 and 86 per cent by 31 December 2026. | QUANTITATIVE | Contradicted |
| Polymarket put the probability of GPT-6.1's release at 48 per cent by the end of October 2026 and 85 per cent by the end of September 2026. | QUANTITATIVE | Contradicted |
| Polymarket traders expect xAI's Grok 4.7 to be released within a week or two of mid-September 2026. | OBSERVATIONAL | Supported |
| AI inference workloads are inevitably moving off Nvidia hardware while training workloads are not. | FORECAST | Not assessed |
| Nvidia's $99 billion AI investment total is larger than the combined assets under management of every venture capital firm on Earth. | QUANTITATIVE | Contradicted |
Galedra