Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Wildlife · 1efd24fe Climate · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary study reports the climate-space filtering pattern. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage directly reports filtering toward colder, drier climate-space margins alongside losses of heat-tolerant lineages.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “A fossil-occurrence synthesis and climate-niche analysis examined Cenozoic tree-diversity change in Western and Central Europe.” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The primary study reports the climate-space filtering pattern.

  From Cenozoic losses of tree diversity constrain climatic adaptation of Western and Central European forests Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Primary analysis result.

• The quoted passage directly reports filtering toward colder, drier climate-space margins alongside losses of heat-tolerant lineages.

  From Cenozoic losses of tree diversity constrain climatic adaptation of Western and Central European forests Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The excerpt matches both climate-direction and lineage-loss components.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

• The filtering result is a genus-level, model-based comparison for Cenozoic-present Western/Central European tree lineages; its comparator populations differ, with global species pools for extinct/extant genera versus native regional species for the Holocene flora, and its current-climate baseline is 1981–2010.

  From Cenozoic losses of tree diversity constrain climatic adaptation of Western and Central European forests Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Adds the analyzed population, model level, climate baseline, and comparator/model-exclusion limits.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
288ea248		68f8aed3

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	addb7c20, 68f8aed3, 1eeda26b

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
19818	APPENDED
19819	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
19832	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24503	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25525	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "links": [
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      "kept": "8a74c273-05cd-83b8-a6bd-5b4b68f8aed3",
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      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "4122f53a-82fe-844b-ad01-695e288ea248",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "8a74c273-05cd-83b8-a6bd-5b4b68f8aed3",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "0b3f7879-e64d-871e-be95-5cf9ac3cac77",
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      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "c5005f2e-9074-84e9-ad72-a8271eeda26b",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "2d8b3daa-1aed-80a8-b861-f3e09416c245",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
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  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25526,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
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    "opposing_search_done": {
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    "independence_reviewed": {
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    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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        "c5005f2e-9074-84e9-ad72-a8271eeda26b"
      ],
      "ok": true
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  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}