Galedra
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Claim

In the phase 1 mRNA-1215 trial, antibody responses increased after the booster dose and remained elevated for at least one year.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 18299

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 111 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 80, shared 30. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Vaccines · 1efd24fe Medicine · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8808 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 2 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:0b3df062-5667-8b4f-8b8a-9122bcfadece

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The phase 1 report says antibody responses remained elevated for at least one year after vaccination. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly states responses increased after the boost and remained elevated for at least one year.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8808 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 2 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:b3a4d06edaa91fd2e4309ef2b2e979e0e14fe4d3e0734bd895c22f7bf328b968

Last changed at entry seq 25852; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
1bfdd8c0 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept cfdb6137)
cfdb6137 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 2.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.000000 (the counted weights) = 2.000000 → probability 0.8808

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8022 to 0.9309, a spread of 0.1287.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
6db3b48acfdb6137

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes1bfdd8c0, cfdb6137

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The phase 1 report says antibody responses remained elevated for at least one year after vaccination. 7b60b3a6

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 6db3b48a

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:0b3df062-5667-8b4f-8b8a-9122bcfadece

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
18299APPENDED
18300ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
18309LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
24698TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "0b3df062-5667-8b4f-8b8a-9122bcfadece",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "b7e343ae-ef18-8841-9a9f-6eafcfdb6137",
      "link": "2a4c5b74-8e23-8aaa-a7e5-8d511bfdd8c0",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "b05e8dd3-a90a-8ab4-b702-7dae6db3b48a",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "b7e343ae-ef18-8841-9a9f-6eafcfdb6137",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "c871a330-cd54-86f2-9e8d-6c3e7b60b3a6",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1287",
    "permissive": "0.9309",
    "conservative": "0.8022"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8808",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.000000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25852,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "2a4c5b74-8e23-8aaa-a7e5-8d511bfdd8c0",
        "b7e343ae-ef18-8841-9a9f-6eafcfdb6137"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.000000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}