Claim

The study’s combined revisions reduced its expected 2025 social cost of CO2 from US$204 to US$179 per ton.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 20331

Referenced 103 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 70, shared 31. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Economics · 1efd24fe Climate · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:0d0febc8-47cd-850b-aff8-e882ba03de8b

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The supplied passage directly reports the expected 2025 social cost of CO2 falling from US$204 to US$179 per ton. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The primary Nature Climate Change article reports that the combined revisions lowered expected 2025 social cost of CO2 from US$204 to US$179 per ton.; The primary study reports the combined social-cost-of-CO2 revision.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:85bc6d982e4a7b473f8ff43d8ba945515e37f8eb886648846ce1a2eb4dca40ed

Last changed at entry seq 24336; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
f63f3ea3 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept ae8382ac)
062197bd support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept ae8382ac)
ae8382ac support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
53ee6fcf support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.600000 (the counted weights) = 3.600000 → probability 0.9734

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9255 to 0.9908, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The study’s combined revisions reduced its expected 2025 social cost of CO2 from US$204 to US$179 per ton.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A climate-economics study incorporated heat-related labor productivity and updated agricultural damage functions into social-cost-of-carbon estimates.” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The primary study reports the combined social-cost-of-CO2 revision.

From New labour and agricultural damages improve climate cost estimates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary combined estimate.
The primary study reports the combined revision to the expected 2025 social cost of CO2.

From New labour and agricultural damages improve climate cost estimates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Additional direct passage for the newly created quantitative claim.
The supplied passage directly reports the expected 2025 social cost of CO2 falling from US$204 to US$179 per ton.

From New labour and agricultural damages improve climate cost estimates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The quoted passage exactly states the values and revision.
The primary Nature Climate Change article reports that the combined revisions lowered expected 2025 social cost of CO2 from US$204 to US$179 per ton.

From New labour and agricultural damages improve climate cost estimates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The abstract directly states both the original and revised estimates.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
7f8fc3a4		ae8382ac
c480106c		ae8382ac

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	f63f3ea3, 062197bd, ae8382ac, 53ee6fcf

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The supplied passage directly reports the expected 2025 social cost of CO2 falling from US$204 to US$179 per ton. ebcc670f

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. 7f8fc3a4c480106c

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 5b3fe35d

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:0d0febc8-47cd-850b-aff8-e882ba03de8b

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
20331	APPENDED
20332	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
20345	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
20463	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22022	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24335	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "0d0febc8-47cd-850b-aff8-e882ba03de8b",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "afe950e5-c17d-8a68-a845-0860ae8382ac",
      "link": "32be2aab-4557-8b99-977e-6460f63f3ea3",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "d35664c8-0098-8209-b198-f4647f8fc3a4",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "afe950e5-c17d-8a68-a845-0860ae8382ac",
      "link": "a1d7cf70-ebf8-8ba3-a3e3-36fd062197bd",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a3863f8e-11cc-83f5-839f-5c90c480106c",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MODEL_OUTPUT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "afe950e5-c17d-8a68-a845-0860ae8382ac",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "3b32d399-c47c-8f2b-ac68-d2bfebcc670f",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "dfeb2cd4-192a-8616-b217-a26f53ee6fcf",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "89494ced-1f20-8254-900e-33d5b5ae87bb",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.9908",
    "conservative": "0.9255"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9734",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 24336,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "32be2aab-4557-8b99-977e-6460f63f3ea3",
        "a1d7cf70-ebf8-8ba3-a3e3-36fd062197bd",
        "afe950e5-c17d-8a68-a845-0860ae8382ac",
        "dfeb2cd4-192a-8616-b217-a26f53ee6fcf"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}