Claim

Across the study’s synthesis, formerly common species showed stronger population declines than initially rare species in marine and terrestrial assemblages.

Type COMPARATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 13699 · qualifiers {"sampling":"Synthesis of 4,748 sites within 129 studies; marine and terrestrial assemblages only."}

Referenced 108 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 1, viewed 74, shared 31. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Environment · 1efd24fe Wildlife · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9186 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

5 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 7 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:10623b57-e062-8ea7-8f40-bc9f7f067d15

Not yet independently audited.Evidence points both ways.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract reports the site/study scope and the contrasting marine-terrestrial versus freshwater patterns. weight 2.000000 evidence

Strongest counted contradiction: The synthesis reported both rare and common species across declines, increases, and fluctuations rather than a consistent abundance-linked direction. weight 0.459000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports stronger declines among formerly common species in marine and terrestrial assemblages.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.9186 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 7 sources, 5 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:ae952e7af00c9b718aa7523e07629824743a8b7add78f8da78807d68ff0c5e02

Last changed at entry seq 15894; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
d7b63157 contradict	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.459000	0.459000
e7da09d9 contradict	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.459000	0.459000
270be5a8 contradict	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.459000	0.459000
2d195dcf support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000
aca71fe2 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	0.000000 (non directional)
36588a5e support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 2d195dcf)
8d45d276 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.423000 (the counted weights) = 2.423000 → probability 0.9186

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8450 to 0.9589, a spread of 0.1139.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Across the study’s synthesis, formerly common species showed stronger population declines than initially rare species in marine and terrestrial assemblages.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A 2026 synthesis of population trends from 4,748 sites in 129 studies found stronger declines among formerly common species in marine and terrestrial...” · 2 claims · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

The abstract reports the site/study scope and the contrasting marine-terrestrial versus freshwater patterns.

From Widespread declines of formerly common species reshape local assemblages over time Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The abstract directly states stronger declines among formerly common species in marine and terrestrial assemblages.
The excerpt directly reports stronger declines among formerly common species in marine and terrestrial assemblages.

From Widespread declines of formerly common species reshape local assemblages over time Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage states the comparative result verbatim and includes the synthesis scope.
The 4,748-site, 129-study synthesis finds stronger declines among formerly common species in marine and terrestrial assemblages, with no clear directional pattern in freshwater.

From Widespread declines of formerly common species reshape local assemblages over time Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary synthesis directly supports the claim while preserving its realm-specific limitation.

Evidence against

A large vertebrate-population synthesis found rarity metrics poorly captured population trends.

From Rare and common vertebrates span a wide spectrum of population trends Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted
The synthesis reported both rare and common species across declines, increases, and fluctuations rather than a consistent abundance-linked direction.

From Rare and common vertebrates span a wide spectrum of population trends Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted
The study explicitly found rare species were not more prone to population declines than common species.

From Rare and common vertebrates span a wide spectrum of population trends Read 2026-09-28 Relevance MODERATE Steps 1 Counted

Qualifications

The study synthesized 4,748 sites within 129 studies across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems.

From Widespread declines of formerly common species reshape local assemblages over time Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The target’s marine-terrestrial comparison is drawn from the stated 4,748-site, 129-study synthesis.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
5a6452c0		2d195dcf

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
7e60b04e	NARROWS	7f067d15

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	d7b63157, e7da09d9, 270be5a8, 2d195dcf, aca71fe2, 36588a5e, 8d45d276

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The abstract reports the site/study scope and the contrasting marine-terrestrial versus freshwater patterns. 5c1b90f4

Against that, contradiction: The synthesis reported both rare and common species across declines, increases, and fluctuations rather than a consistent abundance-linked direction. 0103132c

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 5a6452c0

Qualifier: The study synthesized 4,748 sites within 129 studies across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. 4395d513

A narrower version of this claim is supported. 7e60b04e

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 105fa506

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
13699	APPENDED
13700	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
13709	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13830	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13866	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
13980	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15893	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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