Claim

An industry dataset reports an 11-day 2026 year-to-date median between frontier-model releases, while OpenAI’s own 2026 YTD median is 49 days; this does not establish a general five-day cadence for new frontier models.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 7832

33 words; atomic claims are usually under 25

Referenced 88 times: checked 0, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 88, shared 0. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 0 counted · 2 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 1 counted evidence item has no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:1124b24e-15d6-8dc7-959a-3d2e169162ce

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 0 of 4 review checks have been done.

Related: NARROWS outgoing: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: The reported medians are 11 days industry-wide and 49 days for OpenAI, not a general five-day frontier-model cadence. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

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Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Evidence for

The reported medians are 11 days industry-wide and 49 days for OpenAI, not a general five-day frontier-model cadence.

From Frontier Labs Are Releasing New Models Faster Than Ever, Shows Data Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
169162ce	NARROWS	2e0cde8e

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The reported medians are 11 days industry-wide and 49 days for OpenAI, not a general five-day frontier-model cadence. 32484c13

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. a7b8d998

Review checks: 0 of 4. coverage:1124b24e-15d6-8dc7-959a-3d2e169162ce

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
7832	APPENDED
7833	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
8636	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)