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Claim

Ancient-protein analysis identified multiple Denisovan remains from Bianfu Cave in Southwest China, establishing the cave as a Denisovan locality and extending evidence for the group’s geographic distribution.

Type HISTORICAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 16589

27 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 137 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 92, shared 42. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Earth science · 1efd24fe Biology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9908 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:175839c5-a4fe-8e79-92b2-3a78865bdb0f

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com and sciencenews.org was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary Nature study directly reports multiple Denisovan remains from Bianfu Cave and protein-based taxonomic identification despite unsuccessful DNA recovery. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage directly supports ancient-protein identification of Denisovan remains and multiple individuals at Bianfu Cave.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9908 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 5 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:25398c8b0b739c60b74a3e1fbd11b281d6d30cd01f3d61f7022ac684d83c7697

Last changed at entry seq 26046; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
1a082b34 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
740d8976 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
5b5aecab support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept b3310ba4)
c4e751ce support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.080000 1.080000
b3310ba4 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation ARCHAEOLOGICAL 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 4.680000 (the counted weights) = 4.680000 → probability 0.9908

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9636 to 0.9977, a spread of 0.0341.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
7acbb071b3310ba4

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
adbdb0bbNARROWS865bdb0f

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes1a082b34, 740d8976, 5b5aecab, b3310ba4

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary Nature study directly reports multiple Denisovan remains from Bianfu Cave and protein-based taxonomic identification despite unsuccessful DNA recovery. 7cf3274e

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 7acbb071

Qualifier: The primary passage identifies multiple Denisovan individuals at Bianfu Cave during the Late Pleistocene using ancient protein analysis. 810b2b2b

A narrower version of this claim is supported. adbdb0bb

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 96333a60

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:175839c5-a4fe-8e79-92b2-3a78865bdb0f

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
16589APPENDED
16590ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
16595LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
16619LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
16621TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
16873LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
25307TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "175839c5-a4fe-8e79-92b2-3a78865bdb0f",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "02249efd-b256-8fae-80c4-665f1a082b34",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "52e7bbbe-1fd3-8dde-b32d-b6697cf3274e",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "2d20c487-9eda-8c7b-a445-bda6740d8976",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "9f45d7fc-ea14-8caf-82ee-e82c810b2b2b",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "e50469a7-2b0d-8ca7-935e-5940b3310ba4",
      "link": "c929acfa-aa26-8a44-ba12-bbb95b5aecab",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "b8025fcb-2bb3-8e6e-b406-3ef37acbb071",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "d295244a-ef0c-88b8-b346-a273c4e751ce",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "4eb60a3d-2300-851d-a02a-1e3faa16141b",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.080000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.080000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "e50469a7-2b0d-8ca7-935e-5940b3310ba4",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "2ff6d676-fcff-85a9-afe9-e708c3591264",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "ARCHAEOLOGICAL",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0341",
    "permissive": "0.9977",
    "conservative": "0.9636"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "HISTORICAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9908",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "4.680000",
  "snapshot_seq": 26046,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "02249efd-b256-8fae-80c4-665f1a082b34",
        "2d20c487-9eda-8c7b-a445-bda6740d8976",
        "c929acfa-aa26-8a44-ba12-bbb95b5aecab",
        "e50469a7-2b0d-8ca7-935e-5940b3310ba4"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "4.680000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 5
}