Claim

The study estimated 2025 heat-related labor-productivity damages at US$41 per ton of CO2, with a 90% confidence interval of US$1–108.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 20323

Referenced 107 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 73, shared 32. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Economics · 1efd24fe Climate · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:18231de9-03fd-8080-9717-30a46cb54d15

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The supplied passage directly gives the 2025 estimate of US$41 per ton CO2 and its 90% confidence interval of US$1–108. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The primary study reports its heat-related labor damage estimate and uncertainty interval.; The primary Nature Climate Change article reports US$41 per ton CO2 in 2025 heat-related labour productivity damages with a 90% confidence interval of US$1–108.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:b345b7eb849033465ff96985848dfe2a2e95b46a713e253f1e11a36ab42cd7b8

Last changed at entry seq 24332; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
c0a8a84b support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 917c7431)
917c7431 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
c761813d support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
d4ca045c support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 917c7431)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.600000 (the counted weights) = 3.600000 → probability 0.9734

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9255 to 0.9908, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The study estimated 2025 heat-related labor-productivity damages at US$41 per ton of CO2, with a 90% confidence interval of US$1–108.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A climate-economics study incorporated heat-related labor productivity and updated agricultural damage functions into social-cost-of-carbon estimates.” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The primary study reports its heat-related labor damage estimate and uncertainty interval.

From New labour and agricultural damages improve climate cost estimates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary integrated-assessment result.
The primary study directly reports the heat-related labor-damage estimate and interval.

From New labour and agricultural damages improve climate cost estimates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Additional directly relevant passage for the newly created quantitative claim.
The supplied passage directly gives the 2025 estimate of US$41 per ton CO2 and its 90% confidence interval of US$1–108.

From New labour and agricultural damages improve climate cost estimates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The quoted numbers and year exactly match the target claim.
The primary Nature Climate Change article reports US$41 per ton CO2 in 2025 heat-related labour productivity damages with a 90% confidence interval of US$1–108.

From New labour and agricultural damages improve climate cost estimates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The abstract directly states the exact estimate and interval in the claim.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
d5350a76		917c7431
7a4276bb		917c7431

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	c0a8a84b, 917c7431, c761813d, d4ca045c

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The supplied passage directly gives the 2025 estimate of US$41 per ton CO2 and its 90% confidence interval of US$1–108. 51b96e06

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. d5350a767a4276bb

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 1aa6c6fb

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:18231de9-03fd-8080-9717-30a46cb54d15

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
20323	APPENDED
20324	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
20341	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
20417	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22018	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24331	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
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    "conservative": "0.9255"
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  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9734",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 24332,
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  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
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    "opposing_search_done": {
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    "independence_reviewed": {
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    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
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