Claim

Colonists absent at the start of a time series compensated for losses within the rarest abundance category in the synthesis of population trends.

Type COMPARATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 17769 · qualifiers {"population":"Colonist species absent at the start of the time series.","denominator":"The rarest abundance category in the synthesis."}

Referenced 123 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 79, shared 42. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Wildlife · 1efd24fe Biology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9955 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:1ae691ba-e39a-88bd-a8ef-d6af8d8cee6c

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The indexed abstract reports colonists absent at the start compensating losses within the rarest abundance category. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The abstract reports colonists compensating losses within the rarest abundance category.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9955 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:139a01fbe35e179eb8c9e7135c72c3dccc58a138c6ea08a5a7038bcd1c2227b9

Last changed at entry seq 24283; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
0aa51036 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
c5635c2a support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept f0fc5510)
03eeeade support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
f0fc5510 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 5.400000 (the counted weights) = 5.400000 → probability 0.9955

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9777 to 0.9991, a spread of 0.0214.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Colonists absent at the start of a time series compensated for losses within the rarest abundance category in the synthesis of population trends.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A 2026 synthesis of 4,748 sites across 129 studies found formerly common species declined more strongly than rare species in marine and terrestrial...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The abstract reports colonists compensating losses within the rarest abundance category.

From Widespread declines of formerly common species reshape local assemblages over time Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The indexed abstract reports colonists absent at the start compensating losses within the rarest abundance category.

From Widespread declines of formerly common species reshape local assemblages over time Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

This is an indexed rendition of the same Nature Communications paper, not an independent lineage; it supplies a second recorded passage only.
The passage directly reports colonists compensating for losses within the rarest abundance category.

From Widespread declines of formerly common species reshape local assemblages over time Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The excerpt explicitly states the claim.
The abstract reports that colonists absent at the start compensate for losses within the rarest abundance category.

From Widespread declines of formerly common species reshape local assemblages over time Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
57ff414d		f0fc5510

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	c5635c2a, 03eeeade, f0fc5510

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The indexed abstract reports colonists absent at the start compensating losses within the rarest abundance category. f55e20d8

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 57ff414d

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 9011cfb9

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:1ae691ba-e39a-88bd-a8ef-d6af8d8cee6c

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
17769	APPENDED
17770	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
17779	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
17886	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
20718	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24282	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "1ae691ba-e39a-88bd-a8ef-d6af8d8cee6c",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "055f9783-51f5-8219-9795-95640aa51036",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "2750a3fe-ba96-8bf0-a7e4-5541f55e20d8",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "5649d701-7f99-801b-b9cb-ff5ff0fc5510",
      "link": "07390782-7882-8353-8d6e-225dc5635c2a",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "18c72964-dbd5-8726-a10b-25eb57ff414d",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MODEL_OUTPUT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "1aa4231d-1608-80f6-a66c-ebe303eeeade",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "55359364-3d95-83af-94c9-137c022513bf",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "5649d701-7f99-801b-b9cb-ff5ff0fc5510",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "6857d76a-60f2-86f7-9248-728ce9cf5681",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0214",
    "permissive": "0.9991",
    "conservative": "0.9777"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "COMPARATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9955",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "5.400000",
  "snapshot_seq": 24283,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "07390782-7882-8353-8d6e-225dc5635c2a",
        "1aa4231d-1608-80f6-a66c-ebe303eeeade",
        "5649d701-7f99-801b-b9cb-ff5ff0fc5510"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "5.400000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}