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Claim

In pooled test-negative case-control data from 2,243 Indian children hospitalized with acute gastroenteritis, three doses of ROTASIIL had 52% adjusted effectiveness against rotavirus-gastroenteritis hospitalization among children aged 3–23 months.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 17580

29 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 157 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 107, shared 47. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Medicine · 1efd24fe Society · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9908 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 5 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:1e7c02c0-0e75-81b0-8929-56ab7d17b7e5

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary Nature Communications study reports 52% adjusted effectiveness for three doses among children aged 3–23 months and 88% among those aged 3–5 months. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The packet directly supports the sample, completed three-dose series, 52% adjusted effectiveness, and age range.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9908 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 5 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:b8a54cec5345422330143e0bc467ae4114c3f60d6b88492bc9d4a91abf3844c2

Last changed at entry seq 25346; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
535c4381 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 2.000000 0.000000 (non directional)
75d15ada support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
44d9429e support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.080000 1.080000
cee3922b support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
3b4dfb54 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept cee3922b)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 4.680000 (the counted weights) = 4.680000 → probability 0.9908

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9636 to 0.9977, a spread of 0.0341.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
6b86aebecee3922b

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
29a004f6NARROWS7d17b7e5

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes535c4381, 75d15ada, cee3922b, 3b4dfb54

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary Nature Communications study reports 52% adjusted effectiveness for three doses among children aged 3–23 months and 88% among those aged 3–5 months. 78dc3085

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 6b86aebe

Qualifier: The analysis included 2,243 hospitalized acute-gastroenteritis children, of whom 638 were ELISA-positive, and estimated adjusted effectiveness for three doses against RVGE hospitalization. 2ae49dd3

A narrower version of this claim is supported. 29a004f6

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:1e7c02c0-0e75-81b0-8929-56ab7d17b7e5

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
17580APPENDED
17581ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
17586LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
17623TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
17644LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
19470LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
25345TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "1e7c02c0-0e75-81b0-8929-56ab7d17b7e5",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "10b6915d-a7ef-8110-8df6-db7b535c4381",
      "group": null,
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      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "532c4a00-4e5d-8300-a223-86282ae49dd3",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
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      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "980d4179-38a1-8bb4-97f9-45a875d15ada",
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      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "bd3c9751-b7e1-86e0-9046-b6ae44d9429e",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "42e7e40d-4635-842c-a409-0c7743a86536",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.080000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
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      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "f95530c8-a657-8991-a082-26b6cee3922b",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "cc1f1b9d-201e-82e5-8af9-fa3ac813fb33",
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      "magnitude": "1.800000",
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      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
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      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
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      "interpretive_steps": 0
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    {
      "kept": "f95530c8-a657-8991-a082-26b6cee3922b",
      "link": "fbdca3ea-1cdf-825e-9cf1-99e23b4dfb54",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "096de2a3-226e-87cd-a8f2-80af6b86aebe",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0341",
    "permissive": "0.9977",
    "conservative": "0.9636"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9908",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "4.680000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25346,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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        "fbdca3ea-1cdf-825e-9cf1-99e23b4dfb54"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "4.680000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 5
}