Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Ancient · 1efd24fe Statistics · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The press release reports a moderate overall correlation between Roman and modern roads that varies considerably by location. weight 0.600000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports a moderate overall correlation and substantial geographic variation between Roman and modern roads.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “A network analysis of almost 300,000 kilometres of Roman roads found Rome was not the dominant land-transport hub, Byzantium was more central, and Roman and...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The press release reports a moderate overall correlation between Roman and modern roads that varies considerably by location.

  From Not all roads lead to Rome: Study challenges what we think we know about Roman roads Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The press release directly states the overall correlation and its geographic variation.

• The excerpt directly reports a moderate overall correlation and substantial geographic variation between Roman and modern roads.

  From Not all roads lead to Rome: Study challenges what we think we know about Roman roads Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The passage explicitly states the correlation and its uneven geographic strength.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
dac1c5ae		57aac51d

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
15235	APPENDED
15236	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
15245	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15250	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "2674bd93-722c-8fd2-a96b-6865b5f54b7c",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "9024e31a-4fc2-8ce1-8de1-eb5a57aac51d",
      "link": "7434725c-76cb-85ef-9ea5-d124951d774d",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "9056da44-abe4-8d54-9bd3-3ba0dac1c5ae",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.600000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "EXPERT_ANALYSIS",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "9024e31a-4fc2-8ce1-8de1-eb5a57aac51d",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "783787d8-58af-8dec-9e88-ab1c16dedce9",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.600000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "EXPERT_ANALYSIS",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.600000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0822",
    "permissive": "0.6857",
    "conservative": "0.6035"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "COMPARATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.6457",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "0.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 15564,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "LEANS_SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "0.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}