Galedra
Sign in Sign up

Claim

A nearly complete Early Cretaceous eutriconodontan skeleton from China shows multiple tooth generations at some loci and anatomical adaptations consistent with semiaquatic locomotion, including webbed-like hands and feet and a flattened tail.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 18190

32 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 155 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 1, viewed 112, shared 40. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Biology · 1efd24fe Archaeology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9468 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 7 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:39e8a68c-2c0d-8010-90a6-f235efd27530

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from globaltimes.cn and nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: The fossil’s dentition and postcranial anatomy support interpretations of polyphyodonty and semiaquatic adaptation. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The packet directly supports the fossil’s multiple tooth generations and semiaquatic anatomical adaptations.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.9468 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 7 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:247a3ee9f2dcac62ba92da2eb34d0ea176cedb5bf0850886aed2f60212978323

Last changed at entry seq 25427; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
698c5c9a qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
77adddb9 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation ARCHAEOLOGICAL 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 2f1e1ae0)
d6f86d12 support relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.080000 1.080000
9e479c2c qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation ARCHAEOLOGICAL 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
2f1e1ae0 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation ARCHAEOLOGICAL 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
80dea9ef qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation ARCHAEOLOGICAL 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
a7dbe0e9 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.000000 0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.880000 (the counted weights) = 2.880000 → probability 0.9468

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8825 to 0.9769, a spread of 0.0944.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
f3228e4d2f1e1ae0

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
c889133cNARROWSefd27530

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes698c5c9a, 77adddb9, 9e479c2c, 2f1e1ae0, 80dea9ef, a7dbe0e9

Summary

Supported. The main support is: Independent reporting corroborates the fossil’s swimming adaptations and multiple tooth generations. 1f3a95cb

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. f3228e4d

Qualifier: The locomotor comparison used 13 functional indices across 124 extant species, including nine semiaquatic species. a73e660e

Qualifier: The observation is from one named holotype skeleton, incomplete in three forelimb elements, from Liaoning dated about 120 million years ago. 4980261c

Qualifier: The multiple-generation interpretation is inferred from observed replacement-tooth arrangement at particular loci. abf8e483

Qualifier: Semiaquatic locomotion is a model-based comparative inference with 100% posterior probability in the reported analysis. 68a72f33

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
18190APPENDED
18191ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
18196LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
18223TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
18247LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
25426TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "39e8a68c-2c0d-8010-90a6-f235efd27530",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "18f332da-e7ae-8d33-ac21-f9cc698c5c9a",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "aac3cdff-864f-8aca-9d6d-258ea73e660e",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "8681dd12-a165-8e3f-aa10-4a312f1e1ae0",
      "link": "1cb7039d-1683-85d0-bda2-d6c777adddb9",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "9ab1ada2-6ed1-88a3-b415-b18ff3228e4d",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "ARCHAEOLOGICAL",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "28bc5303-57b5-8189-b2f2-8c1ed6f86d12",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "afd3921f-979a-82a4-9b8e-b4161f3a95cb",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.080000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.080000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "54559d10-347b-8559-8656-1f659e479c2c",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "efade15a-2ada-8da9-9244-273d4980261c",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "ARCHAEOLOGICAL",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "8681dd12-a165-8e3f-aa10-4a312f1e1ae0",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "36a51545-ba11-8034-9f1c-2449ba23a18d",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "ARCHAEOLOGICAL",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "9092e9d8-23ba-8bc3-8984-706f80dea9ef",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "5dad7cc0-b6ac-8fcc-87cd-5693abf8e483",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "ARCHAEOLOGICAL",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "a4556c6c-3766-85ab-97b8-a8c9a7dbe0e9",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "36872f1e-6958-8015-ba2b-462468a72f33",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MODEL_OUTPUT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0944",
    "permissive": "0.9769",
    "conservative": "0.8825"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9468",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.880000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25427,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "18f332da-e7ae-8d33-ac21-f9cc698c5c9a",
        "1cb7039d-1683-85d0-bda2-d6c777adddb9",
        "54559d10-347b-8559-8656-1f659e479c2c",
        "8681dd12-a165-8e3f-aa10-4a312f1e1ae0",
        "9092e9d8-23ba-8bc3-8984-706f80dea9ef",
        "a4556c6c-3766-85ab-97b8-a8c9a7dbe0e9"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.880000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 7
}