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Claim

The northern New Mexico restoration treatments were associated with 21 common beetle species increasing and 35 declining in the post-treatment sub-canopy environment.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 22606 · qualifiers {"location":"Northern New Mexico, USA."}

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 147 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 117, shared 29. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Wildlife · 1efd24fe Biology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:3c9726bd-8d45-80e4-9d3f-9f603a482923

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: The study reports 289 beetle taxa and significant treatment-related composition changes, with 21 common species increasing and 35 declining. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage directly reports 21 common beetle species increasing and 35 declining in the more open post-treatment sub-canopy environment.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 3 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:c7b834ba474a8e86ee42a13a262a6b6af15c8a2022656f5ec1686b0a8af2c522

Last changed at entry seq 25674; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
125d0893 qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
8c33a31b support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept cffed14c)
cffed14c support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.800000 → probability 0.8581

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7790 to 0.9121, a spread of 0.1331.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
40c0936bcffed14c

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
0ca5d353NARROWS3a482923

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes125d0893, 8c33a31b, cffed14c

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The study reports 289 beetle taxa and significant treatment-related composition changes, with 21 common species increasing and 35 declining. 6ab68ce8

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 40c0936b

Qualifier: The primary abstract specifies a six-year, surface-active beetle case study, the thinning-plus-prescribed-burn treatment, 289 Coleoptera taxa, and the post-treatment sub-canopy comparison behind the 21 and 35 counts. 5f60c4e5

A narrower version of this claim is supported. 0ca5d353

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:3c9726bd-8d45-80e4-9d3f-9f603a482923

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
22606APPENDED
22607ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
22622LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
24607TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
25673TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "3c9726bd-8d45-80e4-9d3f-9f603a482923",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "2d6ace60-94a3-8897-ac14-bf4d125d0893",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "3ccfa4a2-3d9f-88b3-bcea-98ff5f60c4e5",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "afdfeed7-abc1-8e5e-8c60-01eccffed14c",
      "link": "301001da-20aa-8ec4-bcee-e7628c33a31b",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "ebf7ad56-f459-8aa7-b3ba-9d6440c0936b",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "afdfeed7-abc1-8e5e-8c60-01eccffed14c",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "96b6a35e-8523-8a3b-82c0-90426ab68ce8",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25674,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
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        "301001da-20aa-8ec4-bcee-e7628c33a31b",
        "afdfeed7-abc1-8e5e-8c60-01eccffed14c"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}