Claim

The Decoder reported that GPT-6 Astra reached 62.7% on ARC-AGI-3 at a test cost of roughly $26,000.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 12391 · qualifiers {"time_range":"As reported in the retrieved article; ARC-AGI-3 test configuration and cost basis are those described by the source.","source_edition":"128f37ac-da6e-8ceb-ab3f-473fd4b3aea6"}

Referenced 103 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 75, shared 27. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

AI · 1efd24fe Prices and inflation · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 0 counted · 2 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:3ebea097-3321-889a-a37d-1252a84dd99c

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 0 of 4 review checks have been done.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The Decoder reports a 62.7% Astra score on ARC-AGI-3 and a test cost of roughly $26,000. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly states Astra reached 62.7 percent on ARC-AGI-3 at a roughly $26,000 test cost.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 4 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:f1b3946fa670cbe4f3a64ec8cefbbe30a15336298277c85417847976a7e0d010

Last changed at entry seq 12630; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
f306cf23 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 788df9ba)
788df9ba support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
7d5a2ece qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
57fee915 qualify	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.080000	0.000000 (non directional)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.800000 → probability 0.8581

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7790 to 0.9121, a spread of 0.1331.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The Decoder reported that GPT-6 Astra reached 62.7% on ARC-AGI-3 at a test cost of roughly $26,000.” · 1 claim · 28 September 2026

Evidence for

The Decoder reports a 62.7% Astra score on ARC-AGI-3 and a test cost of roughly $26,000.

From Benchmarks disagree on GPT-6 Astra, but its human-beating efficiency on ARC-AGI-3 pulls Chollet’s AGI forecast forward Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The excerpt directly states both the benchmark score and approximate test cost, with attribution to the report.
The passage directly states Astra reached 62.7 percent on ARC-AGI-3 at a roughly $26,000 test cost.

From Benchmarks disagree on GPT-6 Astra, but its human-beating efficiency on ARC-AGI-3 pulls Chollet’s AGI forecast forward Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Exact quoted passage covers both the score and approximate cost.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The passage gives 62.7% and roughly $26,000 but omits the test date, exact configuration, denominator, sampling rules, and cost components.

From Benchmarks disagree on GPT-6 Astra, but its human-beating efficiency on ARC-AGI-3 pulls Chollet’s AGI forecast forward Read 2026-09-28 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The numerical result is materially narrowed by unspecified benchmark configuration and cost accounting.
ARC Prize reports 62.7% for the Standard harness but 99.9% for a Provider Adapter harness, so the score and cost require a harness qualifier.

From OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on ARC-AGI-3 Read 2026-09-28 Relevance STRONG Steps 0 Counted

This does not negate the Standard-harness result, but it opposes treating 62.7% and roughly $26,000 as the model’s unqualified ARC-AGI-3 result.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
a1b8482e		788df9ba

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The Decoder reports a 62.7% Astra score on ARC-AGI-3 and a test cost of roughly $26,000. 0e034bfd

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. a1b8482e

Qualifier: The passage gives 62.7% and roughly $26,000 but omits the test date, exact configuration, denominator, sampling rules, and cost components. c3116613

Qualifier: ARC Prize reports 62.7% for the Standard harness but 99.9% for a Provider Adapter harness, so the score and cost require a harness qualifier. 4ae62e3a

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 5cb67ef5

Review checks: 0 of 4. coverage:3ebea097-3321-889a-a37d-1252a84dd99c

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
12391	APPENDED
12392	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
12397	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
12399	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
12412	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
12629	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "variants": {
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    "permissive": "0.9121",
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  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
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  "contradict_groups": 0,
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