Claim

Among Texas graduates who found work, first-year earnings for more AI-exposed majors fell approximately 5% from 2021 to 2024 relative to less-exposed majors.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 22786 · qualifiers {"location":"Texas.","population":"Graduates who found work, comparing more- and less-exposed majors.","time_range":"2021–2024."}

Referenced 148 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 116, shared 31. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Employment · 1efd24fe AI · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8808 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 0 counted · 2 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:448268bd-0e2b-800e-9362-317a47495089

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 0 of 4 review checks have been done.A quoted passage from dallasfed.org was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: The report says first-year earnings fell about 5% from 2021 to 2024 for more-exposed majors relative to less-exposed majors. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly states that first-year earnings for more-exposed majors fell approximately 5% from 2021 to 2024 relative to less-exposed majors.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8808 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 0 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 4 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:10597f10519d067407e8f76a9c9a4bd9c91165261ba8ee66cb6d379c5f9e2c09

Last changed at entry seq 25996; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
cdab1831 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000
3e51503b qualify	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.540000	0.000000 (non directional)
9d1aa0d0 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
3c54ab61 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept cdab1831)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.000000 (the counted weights) = 2.000000 → probability 0.8808

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8022 to 0.9309, a spread of 0.1287.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“A Dallas Fed report on Texas university graduates associated greater exposure to automatable tasks with lower post-2022 employment rates and lower first-year...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The report says first-year earnings fell about 5% from 2021 to 2024 for more-exposed majors relative to less-exposed majors.

From AI plays a role in weak labor market for college graduates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The passage directly states that first-year earnings for more-exposed majors fell approximately 5% from 2021 to 2024 relative to less-exposed majors.

From AI plays a role in weak labor market for college graduates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The analysis links major-level AI exposure to administrative education and earnings records from Texas agencies.

From AI plays a role in weak labor market for college graduates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

The source describes an exposure comparison using administrative records; the excerpt does not by itself establish a causal effect.
The analysis links records for students and graduates from Texas four-year universities using Texas higher-education and workforce administrative data.

From AI plays a role in weak labor market for college graduates Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The counted passage narrows the population and sampling frame to linked administrative records from Texas four-year universities.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
12ca5694		cdab1831

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
1e51ae33	NARROWS	47495089

Review checklist

Review checks: 0 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author. No independent review yet. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The report says first-year earnings fell about 5% from 2021 to 2024 for more-exposed majors relative to less-exposed majors. 4c642864

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 12ca5694

Qualifier: The analysis links major-level AI exposure to administrative education and earnings records from Texas agencies. 4b2eee67

Qualifier: The analysis links records for students and graduates from Texas four-year universities using Texas higher-education and workforce administrative data. 3e7be853

A narrower version of this claim is supported. 1e51ae33

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. d917db16

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
22786	APPENDED
22787	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
22798	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22802	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24445	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25287	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "448268bd-0e2b-800e-9362-317a47495089",
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      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
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    {
      "link": "770fa28b-04c6-8362-b715-91ad3e51503b",
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      "magnitude": "0.540000",
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      "link": "862f3de5-4566-8999-b186-ea2f9d1aa0d0",
      "group": null,
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      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
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    {
      "kept": "2d983c6c-72d1-8e07-84df-995fcdab1831",
      "link": "de758a48-7614-8364-960f-62f23c54ab61",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
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      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1287",
    "permissive": "0.9309",
    "conservative": "0.8022"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8808",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.000000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25996,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
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    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
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    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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      "ok": false
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  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.000000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}