Galedra
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Claim

In the reported firm-level study, corporate social-responsibility engagement subsequently reduced future business risk.

Type CAUSAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 15417 · qualifiers {"population":"Firms in the reported study","time_range":"Future business risk after CSR engagement"}

Referenced 114 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 79, shared 33. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Business · 1efd24fe Policy · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9729 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

3 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability LOW

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:64d97892-7946-8f44-a9e9-68cc186eb249

Not yet independently audited.This assessment depends heavily on modeling choices.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The article abstract states that CSR engagement subsequently reduces future business risk. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly states that CSR engagement subsequently reduces future business risk.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9729 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability LOW · 4 sources, 3 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:4a4add6719080a4f089ac35af683e930e049b1986bd479cc567cf659674c326b

Last changed at entry seq 17304; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
2b0cb702 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.600000 0.600000
737cbcac support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000
6adf06ef support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.600000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 2b0cb702)
da12a281 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 1.800000

prior 0.35 → log-odds -0.619039 + 4.200000 (the counted weights) = 3.580961 → probability 0.9729

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9106 to 0.9922, a spread of 0.0816.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
3004bf082b0cb702

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes2b0cb702, 737cbcac, 6adf06ef, da12a281

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The abstract states that CSR engagement subsequently reduces future business risk. 965d81c5

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 3004bf08

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 5a634d6a

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:64d97892-7946-8f44-a9e9-68cc186eb249

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
15417APPENDED
15418ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
15427LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
15431TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
15551TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
17303LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "64d97892-7946-8f44-a9e9-68cc186eb249",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "7fe4f6b3-2452-8b8e-9016-57282b0cb702",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "0895b843-c526-8c3f-914a-b54a965d81c5",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.600000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "EXPERT_ANALYSIS",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.600000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "9182e97b-e534-898a-90f9-fb6a737cbcac",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "ced95951-81f2-8752-891e-33cc567e1ae8",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "7fe4f6b3-2452-8b8e-9016-57282b0cb702",
      "link": "9f31b87a-7c79-8120-bdeb-77156adf06ef",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "e5b9bbba-5feb-81d0-9da2-60003004bf08",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.600000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "EXPERT_ANALYSIS",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "f035961a-5214-836d-812c-8296da12a281",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f60b4a23-d333-8da4-95d8-b04813b00172",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.35",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0816",
    "permissive": "0.9922",
    "conservative": "0.9106"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "LOW",
  "claim_type": "CAUSAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9729",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "4.200000",
  "snapshot_seq": 17304,
  "prior_log_odds": "-0.619039",
  "support_groups": 3,
  "model_dependent": true,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "7fe4f6b3-2452-8b8e-9016-57282b0cb702",
        "9182e97b-e534-898a-90f9-fb6a737cbcac",
        "9f31b87a-7c79-8120-bdeb-77156adf06ef",
        "f035961a-5214-836d-812c-8296da12a281"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.580961",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}