Claim

Within marine ecosystems, species asynchrony was the strongest predictor of fish-mediated nutrient-dynamics stability, with higher synchrony associated with destabilization.

Type COMPARATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 19349 · qualifiers {"population":"Fish communities across coral reef, mangrove, seagrass, and kelp ecosystems; within-ecosystem analysis of biomass fluctuations."}

a comma-separated series may list several propositions

Referenced 112 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 72, shared 38. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Biology · 1efd24fe Wildlife · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9487 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:738a7e9e-1fb1-83c7-9ba6-013695b23702

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The PNAS abstract identifies species asynchrony as the strongest within-ecosystem driver and reports higher synchrony destabilizing nutrient dynamics. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage identifies species asynchrony as the most important within-ecosystem stability driver and states that higher synchrony destabilizes nutrient dynamics.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

Hide calculation

0.9487 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:8db7280b2c55d35abf427f4ee978adde99d1df9d8b6b3780f50593cac046d5d2

Last changed at entry seq 25960; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
c81ec3d2 qualify	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (non directional)
f9e4727c support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000
43845a38 support	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 1 step, 1 − 0.15 × 1 0.850000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.918000	0.918000
730d932d support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept f9e4727c)

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.918000 (the counted weights) = 2.918000 → probability 0.9487

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8852 to 0.9780, a spread of 0.0928.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Within marine ecosystems, species asynchrony was the strongest predictor of fish-mediated nutrient-dynamics stability, with higher synchrony associated with...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A synthesis of roughly 25 years of fish-community data from 146 time series found that species richness positively predicted the temporal stability of...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The PNAS abstract identifies species asynchrony as the strongest within-ecosystem driver and reports higher synchrony destabilizing nutrient dynamics.

From Scale-dependent effects of species richness and asynchrony regulate the temporal stability of consumer-mediated nutrient dynamics Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The library-indexed abstract corroborates that species asynchrony was the strongest within-ecosystem predictor and that higher synchrony destabilized consumer-mediated nutrient dynamics.

From Scale-dependent effects of species richness and asynchrony regulate the temporal stability of consumer-mediated nutrient dynamics Read 2026-09-29 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

Secondary bibliographic abstract record of the same PNAS study; corroborating source, not an independent dataset.
The passage identifies species asynchrony as the most important within-ecosystem stability driver and states that higher synchrony destabilizes nutrient dynamics.

From Scale-dependent effects of species richness and asynchrony regulate the temporal stability of consumer-mediated nutrient dynamics Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The excerpt directly states both strongest-driver and destabilization relationships.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

The asynchrony result is bounded to six monitoring programs, 146 marine time series from 1999–2023, and nitrogen supply via fish excretion.

From Scale-dependent effects of species richness and asynchrony regulate the temporal stability of consumer-mediated nutrient dynamics Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
f5f7cc8c		f9e4727c

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	c81ec3d2, f9e4727c, 730d932d

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The PNAS abstract identifies species asynchrony as the strongest within-ecosystem driver and reports higher synchrony destabilizing nutrient dynamics. e458c44a

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. f5f7cc8c

Qualifier: The asynchrony result is bounded to six monitoring programs, 146 marine time series from 1999–2023, and nitrogen supply via fish excretion. 7605fb01

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:738a7e9e-1fb1-83c7-9ba6-013695b23702

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
19349	APPENDED
19350	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
19359	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
19367	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24767	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
25959	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "738a7e9e-1fb1-83c7-9ba6-013695b23702",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "5829f4e4-cede-8976-bdad-26dec81ec3d2",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "48ae82e6-1619-8b0b-820a-64397605fb01",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "bbf28cca-adc1-82e2-8a3f-35c9f9e4727c",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "87197ef2-e397-8766-af72-a488e458c44a",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "c15a2a28-ba71-82fa-b9d7-cba843845a38",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "83a86280-baf0-8a3c-9267-e31e21d0edc2",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.918000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.918000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "kept": "bbf28cca-adc1-82e2-8a3f-35c9f9e4727c",
      "link": "c22f41fc-59d4-8eeb-b481-60ea730d932d",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "fb7ab6b9-0d84-87f4-b349-7949f5f7cc8c",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0928",
    "permissive": "0.9780",
    "conservative": "0.8852"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "COMPARATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9487",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "2.918000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25960,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "5829f4e4-cede-8976-bdad-26dec81ec3d2",
        "bbf28cca-adc1-82e2-8a3f-35c9f9e4727c",
        "c22f41fc-59d4-8eeb-b481-60ea730d932d"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.918000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}