Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Elections · 1efd24fe Society · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The study directly reports disproportionate benefits for extreme parties under lower turnout and an association between lower turnout and higher polarization. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage directly reports lower turnout being associated with higher electoral polarization and disproportionate benefits for more extreme parties.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “A 2026 Public Choice study using Dutch election data reports that lower turnout is associated with higher observed electoral polarization because extreme...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The study directly reports disproportionate benefits for extreme parties under lower turnout and an association between lower turnout and higher polarization.

  From Turnout and the distortion of representation: the case of electoral polarization Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• The quoted passage directly reports lower turnout being associated with higher electoral polarization and disproportionate benefits for more extreme parties.

  From Turnout and the distortion of representation: the case of electoral polarization Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The excerpt explicitly states both associations.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
fd2acc35		577ca571

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	577ca571, fdcb7d39

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
22184	APPENDED
22185	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
22196	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24581	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "links": [
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      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
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      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "a62a7d87-c981-8a58-9f86-17a9577ca571",
      "link": "be208c52-1fe1-8691-95cf-940afdcb7d39",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
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      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
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      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "COMPARATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25641,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
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    "opposing_search_done": {
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      "ok": true
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  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}