Claim

In the pre-pandemic 2015–2020 period, existing links in the global rock-phosphate trade network tended to persist while new ties appeared infrequently.

Type OBSERVATIONAL · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 15802 · qualifiers {"time_range":"2015–2020 (pre-pandemic)","source_edition":"99415cf3-e428-8b98-b2a5-39782d1d10cd"}

Referenced 98 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 64, shared 32. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Markets · 1efd24fe Energy · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:79b6f915-dcaa-898e-90af-cd4f435c5e8f

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The study reports persistent existing trade links and infrequent formation of new links during 2015–2020. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The primary study directly reports persistent existing trade links and infrequent new ties in the 2015–2020 global rock-phosphate network.; The quoted passage directly reports persistence of existing links and infrequent appearance of new ties in the trade network.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 3 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:d1ed36a8a4312343688a6f50f6fdf994191c90297d269f11f1b9e6a0616c7374

Last changed at entry seq 17663; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
ba609763 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept b9944ebb)
ca6a153c support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept b9944ebb)
b9944ebb support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.800000 → probability 0.8581

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.7790 to 0.9121, a spread of 0.1331.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“In the pre-pandemic 2015–2020 period, existing links in the global rock-phosphate trade network tended to persist while new ties appeared infrequently.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A 2015–2020 network analysis found that global rock-phosphate trade was structurally decentralized and relatively stable, with few new ties forming.” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The study reports persistent existing trade links and infrequent formation of new links during 2015–2020.

From An analysis of the dynamic structure and evolution of international rock phosphate trade Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The quoted passage directly reports persistence of existing links and infrequent appearance of new ties in the trade network.

From An analysis of the dynamic structure and evolution of international rock phosphate trade Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The primary study directly reports persistent existing trade links and infrequent new ties in the 2015–2020 global rock-phosphate network.

From An analysis of the dynamic structure and evolution of international rock phosphate trade Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Primary peer-reviewed international-trade network study; distinct fertilizer-economics topic.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
0c3b8a6e		b9944ebb
c2b30e55		b9944ebb

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	ba609763, ca6a153c, b9944ebb

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The study reports persistent existing trade links and infrequent formation of new links during 2015–2020. 88c5059d

2 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. 0c3b8a6ec2b30e55

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 56d253bc

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:79b6f915-dcaa-898e-90af-cd4f435c5e8f

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
15802	APPENDED
15803	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
15812	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15816	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
17662	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "79b6f915-dcaa-898e-90af-cd4f435c5e8f",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "f328887c-e109-8fdd-83d9-8209b9944ebb",
      "link": "1fac113d-1d3c-84c4-b653-b57aba609763",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "30605696-ecb0-8cf2-a25f-cb9e0c3b8a6e",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "f328887c-e109-8fdd-83d9-8209b9944ebb",
      "link": "63bb806f-1ea1-8db3-8376-9697ca6a153c",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "c76327b6-35c1-829e-83b3-1ab2c2b30e55",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "f328887c-e109-8fdd-83d9-8209b9944ebb",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "23365b0d-354f-8ae1-9823-f6f588c5059d",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 17663,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "1fac113d-1d3c-84c4-b653-b57aba609763",
        "63bb806f-1ea1-8db3-8376-9697ca6a153c",
        "f328887c-e109-8fdd-83d9-8209b9944ebb"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}