Claim

In the study, observed outbreak reporting declined by a median of 32% for each additional hour of travel time from a health facility.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 22421

Referenced 112 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 68, shared 42. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Public health · 1efd24fe Society · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

1 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:7a8db3ca-ab31-8353-bd15-f8aa1c8f2b33

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary abstract quantifies the reporting decline associated with each additional travel hour to healthcare. weight 2.000000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The passage directly reports a median 32% reporting decline for each additional hour of travel from a health facility.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9781 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:19a26ee240fd6e17260fddc34d96bb30a08eadb401c1db89d76bc3eaea9d8cb6

Last changed at entry seq 24896; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
395d591a support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
8488b21d support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept d0de228a)
d0de228a support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MEASUREMENT 1.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	2.000000	2.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.800000 (the counted weights) = 3.800000 → probability 0.9781

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9346 to 0.9929, a spread of 0.0583.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“In the study, observed outbreak reporting declined by a median of 32% for each additional hour of travel time from a health facility.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A global Nature analysis linked emerging-disease outbreak geography to heterogeneous anthropogenic drivers and healthcare-access reporting bias.” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The primary abstract quantifies the reporting decline associated with each additional travel hour to healthcare.

From The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Exact abstract quantitative reporting result.
The main text directly quantifies the median and range of reporting decline with additional travel time to healthcare.

From The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Exact primary-text measurement.
The passage directly reports a median 32% reporting decline for each additional hour of travel from a health facility.

From The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Median decline and travel-time increment match; excerpt also gives disease-specific range.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
f4399090		d0de228a

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

1 check by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	395d591a, 8488b21d, d0de228a

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The main text directly quantifies the median and range of reporting decline with additional travel time to healthcare. 49c915e3

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. f4399090

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:7a8db3ca-ab31-8353-bd15-f8aa1c8f2b33

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
22421	APPENDED
22422	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
22435	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22483	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24895	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "7a8db3ca-ab31-8353-bd15-f8aa1c8f2b33",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "1f135edd-df17-8430-ab1f-75ad395d591a",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "86447f15-9b3f-8367-94fa-fca849c915e3",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "9165ffc3-ffdf-8e3a-8163-cd6dd0de228a",
      "link": "41dcdb87-b1f7-823e-84f9-3b5d8488b21d",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "bb99081e-46fb-84e2-9905-73acf4399090",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
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      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "9165ffc3-ffdf-8e3a-8163-cd6dd0de228a",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "926ce104-b396-87c0-838c-b42643d7a6d1",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "2.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MEASUREMENT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "2.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0583",
    "permissive": "0.9929",
    "conservative": "0.9346"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9781",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 24896,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "1f135edd-df17-8430-ab1f-75ad395d591a",
        "41dcdb87-b1f7-823e-84f9-3b5d8488b21d",
        "9165ffc3-ffdf-8e3a-8163-cd6dd0de228a"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}