Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: Nature reports a pooled 0.321-standard-deviation gain across five COVID-disrupted-country trials involving primary-school children. weight 1.800000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans supported.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “The 0.321-standard-deviation tutoring effect is a pooled estimate across five country trials involving primary-school children during COVID-19-related school...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• Nature reports a pooled 0.321-standard-deviation learning gain for combined phone-and-SMS tutoring across five randomized country trials.

  From Mobile education builds resilience during shocks in five countries Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The article directly identifies the pooled estimate and five-country randomized-trial context; its methods and sample sections further specify primary-school children during COVID-19 disruptions.

• Nature reports a pooled 0.321-standard-deviation gain across five COVID-disrupted-country trials involving primary-school children.

  From Mobile education builds resilience during shocks in five countries Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
4c956818	NARROWS	53e8ffe5

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	21afe3e8, d939ad24

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
14779	APPENDED
14780	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
15666	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24903	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "7e5f9fff-0c57-847e-a2c2-9e7d4c956818",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "8870b654-7260-84d9-8db8-eb1221afe3e8",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "e95f14eb-f2eb-812b-b1af-f3e0cf0a35d0",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "e2edc795-3334-86e8-ad99-4570d939ad24",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "662789e5-d17c-8116-bdea-b7f05e17d078",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.35",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1131",
    "permissive": "0.9831",
    "conservative": "0.8700"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "LOW",
  "claim_type": "CAUSAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9517",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 24904,
  "prior_log_odds": "-0.619039",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": true,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "8870b654-7260-84d9-8db8-eb1221afe3e8",
        "e2edc795-3334-86e8-ad99-4570d939ad24"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "2.980961",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}