Galedra
Claim
The study analyzed Harris County, Texas misdemeanor bail decisions from 2020 to 2025, using 22,361 usable cases decided by 21 magistrates after exclusions.
a comma-separated series may list several propositionsTopics
Not filed under any topic yet.
Assessment
Supported
Main unresolved issue: 1 counted evidence item has no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:85af8e31-dbaa-8685-9706-64d7972ec8cc
Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from arxiv.org was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.
Why?
Strongest counted support: The paper explicitly reports its 2020–2025 Harris County scope, exclusions yielding 22,361 usable cases, and analysis of 21 magistrates. weight 1.800000 evidence
Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed
What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.
0.8581 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 1 source, 1 independent lineage
How the number was reached
| Link | Working | Weight | Counted as |
|---|---|---|---|
| 79bc7c3b support | relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 | 1.800000 | 1.800000 |
prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 1.800000 (the counted weights) = 1.800000 → probability 0.8581
Your view
Registered views
Nobody has registered a view yet.
Checked as part of
- “The study analyzed Harris County, Texas misdemeanor bail decisions from 2020 to 2025, using 22,361 usable cases decided by 21 magistrates after exclusions.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
Evidence for
-
From Do Judges Behave Like Algorithms? Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
Evidence against
None.
Qualifications
None.
Suppressed as dependent
None.
Inferences
Concluded from
None.
Used as a premise in
None.
Threads
None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.
Claim edges
| From | Relationship | To |
|---|---|---|
| 972ec8cc | NARROWS | e1122017 |
Review checklist
Review checks: 1 of 4
| Check | Done | By |
|---|---|---|
| qualifiers reviewed | no | |
| opposing search done | no | |
| independence reviewed | no | |
| primary source reviewed | yes | 79bc7c3b |
Summary
Supported. The main support is: The paper explicitly reports its 2020–2025 Harris County scope, exclusions yielding 22,361 usable cases, and analysis of 21 magistrates. f0bd4e91
Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:85af8e31-dbaa-8685-9706-64d7972ec8cc
Contribution history
| seq | event | detail |
|---|---|---|
| 23171 | APPENDED | |
| 23172 | ACCEPT | AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION |
| 23183 | LINK_EVIDENCE | by 1efd24fe (accepted) |
Score trace
{
"claim": "85af8e31-dbaa-8685-9706-64d7972ec8cc",
"links": [
{
"link": "81e4d56b-3880-8f9a-8b28-b40c79bc7c3b",
"group": null,
"edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
"evidence": "22766865-d45b-8311-83a7-f680f0bd4e91",
"direction": "SUPPORT",
"magnitude": "1.800000",
"relevance": "DIRECT",
"extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
"provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
"observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
"source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
"authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
"audit_confirmed": false,
"effective_weight": "1.800000",
"interpretive_steps": 0
}
],
"model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
"prior": "0.50",
"variants": {
"spread": "0.1331",
"permissive": "0.9121",
"conservative": "0.7790"
},
"code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
"contested": false,
"stability": "MEDIUM",
"claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
"config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
"probability": "0.8581",
"provisional": true,
"evidence_sum": "1.800000",
"snapshot_seq": 23184,
"prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
"support_groups": 1,
"model_dependent": false,
"review_coverage": "0.25",
"truth_evaluable": true,
"assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
"review_checklist": {
"qualifiers_reviewed": {
"by": [],
"ok": false
},
"opposing_search_done": {
"by": [],
"ok": false
},
"independence_reviewed": {
"by": [],
"ok": false
},
"primary_source_reviewed": {
"by": [
"81e4d56b-3880-8f9a-8b28-b40c79bc7c3b"
],
"ok": true
}
},
"contradict_groups": 0,
"rounding_boundary": false,
"posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
"not_applicable_reason": null,
"independence_unreviewed": 1
}