Claim

Inference price-performance will improve 100-fold between early September 2026 and 31 December 2026.

Type FORECAST · truth-evaluable: no (UNRESOLVED_FORECAST) · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 4032

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 57 times: checked 0, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 55, shared 2. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Not assessed

2 of 4 review checks done · 2 counted

0 independent evidence lineages · review checks 2 of 4 · stability n/a

This is a forecast that has not resolved yet.

Main unresolved issue: Review check not yet done: independence reviewed coverage:87e4ece5-9f5e-87b6-89a1-f0cee24223f6

Related: NARROWS outgoing: Not assessed

Why?

Review gaps: independence reviewed, primary source reviewed

Hide calculation

No probability. This is a forecast that has not resolved yet.

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:d447bf586cfc3ec45f7a9c2a3b652e3d2268f055af59502ae0aa3284c73a7395

Last changed at entry seq 11264; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

prior — → log-odds —

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Evidence for

None.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
e24223f6	NARROWS	ada9b9e7

Review checklist

Review checks: 2 of 4

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	yes	5fa8ada4
opposing search done	yes	0f1a113b
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	no

Summary

Not assessed. This is a forecast that has not resolved yet. coverage:87e4ece5-9f5e-87b6-89a1-f0cee24223f6

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 0f1a113b

Review checks: 2 of 4. coverage:87e4ece5-9f5e-87b6-89a1-f0cee24223f6

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
4032	APPENDED
4033	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION

Score trace

{
  "claim": "87e4ece5-9f5e-87b6-89a1-f0cee24223f6",
  "links": [],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": null,
  "variants": null,
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": null,
  "claim_type": "FORECAST",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": null,
  "provisional": false,
  "evidence_sum": null,
  "snapshot_seq": 11264,
  "prior_log_odds": null,
  "support_groups": 0,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.50",
  "truth_evaluable": false,
  "assessment_state": "NOT_APPLICABLE",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c00f-6137-7abb-8f4c-f2c55fa8ada4"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0c00f-612d-779e-8bfb-83540f1a113b"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": null,
  "not_applicable_reason": "UNRESOLVED_FORECAST",
  "independence_unreviewed": 0
}