Claim

Combining DESI DR2 and complementary data in a multi-parameter w0wa cosmology fit produced an approximately 3-sigma preference for an evolving dark-energy equation of state over ΛCDM, while the corresponding Bayes factor was inconclusive.

Type COMPARATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 20160 · qualifiers {"scope":"Model-dependent fit and Bayesian comparison using DESI DR2, supernovae, CMB, and cosmic-chronometer data; not a settled detection."}

33 words; atomic claims are usually under 25a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 104 times: checked 3, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 57, shared 44. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Astronomy and space · 1efd24fe Physics · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:8ee5d507-b3a5-8062-86c7-37834d9c62d3

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from link.springer.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The packet directly reports the approximately 3-sigma fit-level preference, improved chi-square, and inconclusive Bayes factor. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The MNRAS abstract directly reports the approximately 3-sigma fit-level preference and inconclusive Bayes factor.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 4 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:8ce26f9c3b646f54dcc3748a6a4a451193a7dacb747ac69b1bc310a671a084bc

Last changed at entry seq 22773; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
4b5902d0 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 730ee0ba)
62615b79 qualify	relevance STRONG 1.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.080000	0.000000 (non directional)
730ee0ba support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
70370c7d support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.600000 (the counted weights) = 3.600000 → probability 0.9734

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9255 to 0.9908, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“Combining DESI DR2 and complementary data in a multi-parameter w0wa cosmology fit produced an approximately 3-sigma preference for an evolving dark-energy...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“Combining DESI DR2 and complementary data in a multi-parameter w0wa cosmology fit produced an approximately 3-sigma preference for an evolving dark-energy...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“Recent analyses of DESI DR2 and complementary cosmological data report a roughly 3-sigma fit-level preference for evolving dark energy over ΛCDM in a...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The MNRAS abstract directly reports the approximately 3-sigma fit-level preference and inconclusive Bayes factor.

From Dynamical dark energy from DESI DR2 and DES Year 6 BAO, supernovae, and cosmic chronometers: a 3σ preference without decisive Bayesian evidence Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
An independent DESI DR2 Lyman-alpha analysis reports a moderate preference for dynamical dark-energy models, reaching approximately 3.10 sigma for one combined dataset.

From Evidence of dynamical dark energy found via the DESI DR2 Lyman-alpha forest Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted
The packet directly reports the approximately 3-sigma fit-level preference, improved chi-square, and inconclusive Bayes factor.

From Dynamical dark energy from DESI DR2 and DES Year 6 BAO, supernovae, and cosmic chronometers: a 3σ preference without decisive Bayesian evidence Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

An independent DESI DR2 analysis finds only modest, non-robust significance for evolving dark energy with late-time datasets alone, qualifying the approximately 3-sigma fit-level preference reported in another combination.

From Evidence for evolving dark energy from DESI DR2 BAO and Pantheon+, DES-Dovekie, and Union3 Read 2026-09-29 Relevance STRONG Steps 0 Counted

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
2e6481a2		730ee0ba

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	4b5902d0, 62615b79, 730ee0ba, 70370c7d

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The packet directly reports the approximately 3-sigma fit-level preference, improved chi-square, and inconclusive Bayes factor. ca7c73b7

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 2e6481a2

Qualifier: An independent DESI DR2 analysis finds only modest, non-robust significance for evolving dark energy with late-time datasets alone, qualifying the approximately 3-sigma fit-level preference reported in another combination. 289df2a4

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:8ee5d507-b3a5-8062-86c7-37834d9c62d3

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
20160	APPENDED
20161	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
20172	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
20187	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
20201	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22014	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "8ee5d507-b3a5-8062-86c7-37834d9c62d3",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "793f040d-f88a-8ad7-a132-d5e6730ee0ba",
      "link": "246fd8f9-26e6-8daa-bd0e-84704b5902d0",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "28431418-255a-8bf0-a94a-dd812e6481a2",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "MODEL_OUTPUT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "418f1b12-9830-80a1-b138-617e62615b79",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "8c26aaeb-f781-8fca-beb9-df47289df2a4",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.080000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "793f040d-f88a-8ad7-a132-d5e6730ee0ba",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "b47b9661-0744-8aa9-8521-acbfca7c73b7",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "9e69939a-5cf4-8205-86cf-588e70370c7d",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "e6baaa89-223a-8d43-9701-026a1a0b2894",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.9908",
    "conservative": "0.9255"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "COMPARATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9734",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 22773,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "246fd8f9-26e6-8daa-bd0e-84704b5902d0",
        "418f1b12-9830-80a1-b138-617e62615b79",
        "793f040d-f88a-8ad7-a132-d5e6730ee0ba",
        "9e69939a-5cf4-8205-86cf-588e70370c7d"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
}