Galedra
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Claim

62% of remote workers report higher productivity.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 15

Referenced 109 times: checked 0, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 107, shared 2. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Statistics · d6193340 Employment · d6193340

Assessment

Unresolved

Score: 0.5247 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

4 of 4 review checks done · 4 counted

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 4 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: Respondents were recruited only from Acme customer accounts; answers are self-reported. 983729b4

Related: NARROWS incoming: Supported

Why?

Strongest counted support: 62% of 400 surveyed respondents reported higher productivity. weight 0.099000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The release states the 62% figure, citing Acme's survey.; Article 3 states the 62% figure, citing the release.; Article 1 states the 62% figure, citing the release.; Article 2 states the 62% figure, citing the release.

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Unresolved to Contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.5247 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Unresolved · Review checks: 4 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 6 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:c47749374aed1f0669976974bcc5a61a3e9d3bc268d7b138e66d029c165e1e92

Last changed at entry seq 10803; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
789cb882 support relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 3 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 3 0.550000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.099000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 9ee89c57)
383a79ee qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
3cd875a2 support relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 3 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 3 0.550000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.099000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 9ee89c57)
1fca060e support relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 3 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 3 0.550000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.099000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 9ee89c57)
a14e780c support relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 3 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 3 0.550000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.099000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 9ee89c57)
9ee89c57 support relevance WEAK 0.2 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 3 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 3 0.550000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.099000 0.099000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 0.099000 (the counted weights) = 0.099000 → probability 0.5247

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.5173 to 0.5321, a spread of 0.0148.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
f3803c381b5ff9db9ee89c57
5bb38f4b1b5ff9db9ee89c57
3660b51d1b5ff9db9ee89c57
b5b1b9271b5ff9db9ee89c57

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

FromRelationshipTo
e7853bf2NARROWS4a7d47b7

Review checklist

Review checks: 4 of 4

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedyescc149357
opposing search doneyes27bee224
independence reviewedyesb6827b92
primary source reviewedyes789cb882, 383a79ee, 9ee89c57

Summary

Unresolved. The main support is: 62% of 400 surveyed respondents reported higher productivity. 72ea8117

4 further items repeat the same origin and are not independent evidence. 1b5ff9db

Qualifier: Respondents were recruited only from Acme customer accounts; answers are self-reported. 983729b4

A narrower version of this claim is supported. e7853bf2

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 27bee224

Review checks: 4 of 4. coverage:9326cc44-0541-8643-83a4-e3cc4a7d47b7

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
15APPENDED
16ACCEPT
87AUDITCONFIRMED
71LINK_EVIDENCEby ed4ff57f (accepted)
73LINK_EVIDENCEby ed4ff57f (accepted)
75LINK_EVIDENCEby ed4ff57f (accepted)
77LINK_EVIDENCEby ed4ff57f (accepted)
79LINK_EVIDENCEby ed4ff57f (accepted)
105TASK_RESULTby 532f5734 (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "9326cc44-0541-8643-83a4-e3cc4a7d47b7",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "ed610e0c-20a8-8f6d-8491-4a399ee89c57",
      "link": "0bcc1210-9323-8ef0-9c28-7ecb789cb882",
      "group": "bb9bb008-71c6-8ccc-9bf9-268e1b5ff9db",
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "ea34d9e4-fd6a-8317-80bc-4df1f3803c38",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.099000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": true,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 3
    },
    {
      "link": "1d3174d3-b99f-8d2d-9751-4b2b383a79ee",
      "group": "bb9bb008-71c6-8ccc-9bf9-268e1b5ff9db",
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "5f7d5bb2-58f3-8a71-846f-ef8c983729b4",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "DATASET",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": true,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "ed610e0c-20a8-8f6d-8491-4a399ee89c57",
      "link": "3ac59d61-a5b7-89c5-999d-a6ab3cd875a2",
      "group": "bb9bb008-71c6-8ccc-9bf9-268e1b5ff9db",
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "67e6e23e-5a7d-8d25-ada9-85075bb38f4b",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.099000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": true,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 3
    },
    {
      "kept": "ed610e0c-20a8-8f6d-8491-4a399ee89c57",
      "link": "6125e08f-2f84-80ef-b4a5-035d1fca060e",
      "group": "bb9bb008-71c6-8ccc-9bf9-268e1b5ff9db",
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "ceb234bd-d31b-8549-8c10-9b5e3660b51d",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.099000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": true,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 3
    },
    {
      "kept": "ed610e0c-20a8-8f6d-8491-4a399ee89c57",
      "link": "88a651f0-4fdd-81f8-bc92-965ba14e780c",
      "group": "bb9bb008-71c6-8ccc-9bf9-268e1b5ff9db",
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "3ec31b47-0188-8378-81fd-355bb5b1b927",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.099000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": true,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 3
    },
    {
      "link": "ed610e0c-20a8-8f6d-8491-4a399ee89c57",
      "group": "bb9bb008-71c6-8ccc-9bf9-268e1b5ff9db",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a791c84d-ab89-8439-bdb8-51d872ea8117",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.099000",
      "relevance": "WEAK",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "DATASET",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": true,
      "effective_weight": "0.099000",
      "interpretive_steps": 3
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0148",
    "permissive": "0.5321",
    "conservative": "0.5173"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.5247",
  "provisional": false,
  "evidence_sum": "0.099000",
  "snapshot_seq": 10803,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "1.00",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "UNRESOLVED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0b59e-2c0b-7d8b-bd47-82d9cc149357"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [
        "01a0bf29-43c1-7a36-8506-28ef27bee224"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "01a0b59e-2b5d-713f-b5ea-6561b6827b92"
      ],
      "ok": true
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "0bcc1210-9323-8ef0-9c28-7ecb789cb882",
        "1d3174d3-b99f-8d2d-9751-4b2b383a79ee",
        "ed610e0c-20a8-8f6d-8491-4a399ee89c57"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "0.099000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 0
}