Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Not filed under any topic yet.

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: Among 294 structured modeled cases, 223 were feasible and 197 met numerical criteria, yielding 88.3% conditionally. weight 1.400000 evidence

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Leans contradicted.

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Evidence for

• The article defines a modeled three-node Earth–Apex–Moon logistics framework comparing direct, transshipment, and hybrid operation.

  From A reliability-aware framework for campaign-scale lunar construction logistics with space-elevator transshipment Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Supports the model architecture and logistics scenarios.

• The reported construction-time example is a 10^8-tonne modeled stress test.

  From A reliability-aware framework for campaign-scale lunar construction logistics with space-elevator transshipment Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Supports the stated stress-test target.

• Among 294 structured modeled cases, 223 were feasible and 197 met numerical criteria, yielding 88.3% conditionally.

  From A reliability-aware framework for campaign-scale lunar construction logistics with space-elevator transshipment Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  Directly supports the feasibility, acceptance, denominator, and conditional-rate figures.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

None.

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

From	Relationship	To
e702ed88	NARROWS	96af3ed5

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	f5d34dff, 1df0d31a, 5cf637c5

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
25577	APPENDED
25578	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
25581	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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    {
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  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1335",
    "permissive": "0.8606",
    "conservative": "0.7271"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8022",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.400000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25582,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
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    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
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    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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        "f2fb67fe-cec4-8034-a9a5-01705cf637c5"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.400000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}