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Claim

The northern New Mexico thinning-and-prescribed-burning treatments had less impact on beetle communities than clear-cutting or high-severity wildfire, according to the study.

Type COMPARATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 22610 · qualifiers {"location":"Northern New Mexico, USA."}

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 108 times: checked 1, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 77, shared 30. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Wildlife · 1efd24fe Biology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Leans supported

Score: 0.6457 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

1 independent evidence lineage · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:a051745c-5541-81cc-ab4b-989de5c70180

Not yet independently audited.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The study says restoration treatments were less impactful than clear-cutting or high-severity wildfire and produced habitat mosaics. weight 0.600000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The supplied passage supports lower impact for forest restoration treatments than clear-cutting or high-severity wildfire, but does not name thinning or prescribed burning.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Contradicted.

Hide calculation

0.6457 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Leans supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 3 sources, 1 independent lineage

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:a93c973937c319f581b36ce0967f3ead4a44fa68d15e74419c9c1cc2a84b3b39

Last changed at entry seq 24976; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

LinkWorkingWeightCounted as
2d07ae2d support relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.540000 0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 74500dd1)
8c09d21f qualify relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 1.800000 0.000000 (non directional)
74500dd1 support relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation EXPERT_ANALYSIS 0.3 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1 0.600000 0.600000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 0.600000 (the counted weights) = 0.600000 → probability 0.6457

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.6035 to 0.6857, a spread of 0.0822.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Sign in to register whether you agree or disagree. A view is yours alone and never changes the assessment.

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

Evidence for

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

Suppressed as dependent

EvidenceGroupKept instead
1c62507274500dd1

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

CheckDoneBy
qualifiers reviewedno
opposing search doneno
independence reviewedno
primary source reviewedyes2d07ae2d, 8c09d21f, 74500dd1

Summary

Leans supported. The main support is: The study says restoration treatments were less impactful than clear-cutting or high-severity wildfire and produced habitat mosaics. 8dd6d128

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 1c625072

Qualifier: The primary abstract specifies the six-year northern New Mexico mixed-conifer setting, surface-active beetle population, thinning-plus-prescribed-burn treatment, BACI design, and comparison with severe disturbances. 47091418

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found none. 71ae63b7

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:a051745c-5541-81cc-ab4b-989de5c70180

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seqeventdetail
22610APPENDED
22611ACCEPTAUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
22624LINK_EVIDENCEby 1efd24fe (accepted)
22629TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)
24183TASK_RESULTby 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "a051745c-5541-81cc-ab4b-989de5c70180",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "e5d7ac73-76fb-8cc9-b7ba-273574500dd1",
      "link": "0f0995ea-d577-8ec5-90d8-d7042d07ae2d",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "0779db94-09e1-8eb6-ad8a-f2071c625072",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.540000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "5d4a9c13-c105-88eb-b66d-32598c09d21f",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "2b9a0bd1-150b-835a-bfb3-f5a147091418",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "e5d7ac73-76fb-8cc9-b7ba-273574500dd1",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "0cf2eab3-e569-84a9-9d8d-a7d38dd6d128",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.600000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "EXPERT_ANALYSIS",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.600000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0822",
    "permissive": "0.6857",
    "conservative": "0.6035"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "COMPARATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.6457",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "0.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 24976,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "LEANS_SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "0f0995ea-d577-8ec5-90d8-d7042d07ae2d",
        "5d4a9c13-c105-88eb-b66d-32598c09d21f",
        "e5d7ac73-76fb-8cc9-b7ba-273574500dd1"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "0.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}