Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Archaeology · 1efd24fe Biology · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The abstract reports digital and microscopic analysis of 18 ivory figurines from Mizyn, Ukraine. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage directly supports digital and microscopic analysis of 18 ivory figurines from Mizyn, Ukraine, but it does not state the study year 2026.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

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Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “A 2026 study analyzed 18 Mizyn mammoth-ivory figurines and reported that ivory’s natural internal patterns informed engraved geometry, with recalibrated...” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The abstract reports digital and microscopic analysis of 18 ivory figurines from Mizyn, Ukraine.

  From Internal structure of Mammoth ivory inspired the design of Mizyn (Ukraine) Upper Palaeolithic figurines Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• The quoted passage directly supports digital and microscopic analysis of 18 ivory figurines from Mizyn, Ukraine, but it does not state the study year 2026.

  From Internal structure of Mammoth ivory inspired the design of Mizyn (Ukraine) Upper Palaeolithic figurines Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

  The methods, sample size, and location are explicit; the date is absent.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
9f0bc87c		c4329936

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	c4329936, a0472346

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
23756	APPENDED
23757	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
23774	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24630	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "aa3bcc64-ce20-8ef4-8331-22d7b12b4c75",
  "links": [
    {
      "link": "5700f1ff-abf8-888a-ad9b-6c0cc4329936",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a9cc8e1f-5e00-8c6d-918e-0d4e0429b99f",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "kept": "5700f1ff-abf8-888a-ad9b-6c0cc4329936",
      "link": "590cf9fb-c844-8bb5-af98-d0b5a0472346",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "9a043bdb-20af-8162-9410-0b059f0bc87c",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.540000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1331",
    "permissive": "0.9121",
    "conservative": "0.7790"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "OBSERVATIONAL",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.8581",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "1.800000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25694,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "5700f1ff-abf8-888a-ad9b-6c0cc4329936",
        "590cf9fb-c844-8bb5-af98-d0b5a0472346"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "1.800000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 2
}