Claim

Model ledger-default@0.1.0 ledger-strict@0.1.0 ledger-default@0.2.0 ledger-strict@0.2.0 ledger-default@0.3.0 (default) ledger-strict@0.3.0 Snapshot seq

Topics

Climate · 1efd24fe Earth science · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Why?

Strongest counted support: The institutional release reports up to 5 billion tonnes CO2-equivalent of potential disturbance-associated soil-carbon loss relative to an undisturbed scenario. weight 0.918000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The supplied passage directly reports 0.8–4.9 Gt CO2-equivalent potential losses and their share of the mean storage pool, but not 2018 or annual-rate wording.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Leans supported to Leans contradicted.

Hide calculation

Your view

Registered views

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

• “Under 2018 conditions, land-use disturbance corresponds to a potential European wetland soil-carbon storage difference of 0.8–4.9 Gt CO2-equivalent, not an...” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
• “The Nature study quantified European wetland disturbance, potential carbon-storage differences, and scenario-based restoration needs:...” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

• The study estimates 0.8–4.9 Gt CO2-equivalent in potential disturbance-associated soil-carbon storage loss relative to an undisturbed baseline.

  From Highly fragmented European wetlands with uneven restoration needs Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

• The institutional release reports up to 5 billion tonnes CO2-equivalent of potential disturbance-associated soil-carbon loss relative to an undisturbed scenario.

  From New study pinpoints europe’s most critical wetlands for climate action Read 2026-09-29 Relevance STRONG Steps 1 Counted

  The release rounds the primary study’s upper estimate of 4.9 Gt CO2-equivalent.

• The supplied passage directly reports 0.8–4.9 Gt CO2-equivalent potential losses and their share of the mean storage pool, but not 2018 or annual-rate wording.

  From Highly fragmented European wetlands with uneven restoration needs Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

  The excerpt supports the magnitude and storage-pool interpretation but leaves the temporal qualifiers unstated.

• The primary Nature article characterizes 0.8–4.9 Gt CO2-equivalent as potential wetland carbon-stock losses under 2018 disturbance conditions and explicitly distinguishes this stock difference from an annual emissions trajectory.

  From Highly fragmented European wetlands with uneven restoration needs Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  The passage directly states the range and clarifies its non-annual interpretation.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

• The full Nature passage supplies material qualifiers omitted from the counted anchor: the estimate is a 2018 stock difference against an undisturbed baseline, not an annual emission rate, and applies only to natural/seminatural open wetlands excluding historically lost, forested, and heavily drained wetlands.

  From Highly fragmented European wetlands with uneven restoration needs Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

  This directly narrows the time interpretation, baseline, denominator, and mapped-wetland scope of the 0.8–4.9 Gt estimate.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
efe9e814		ea0a7cb9

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	895f6913, ea0a7cb9, cfa01030, e417015b

Summary

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
22721	APPENDED
22722	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
22737	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22761	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22767	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
23499	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24372	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

{
  "claim": "b283c8cd-6d7f-8e0c-94a4-7653f5fcaa8b",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "550530ed-9960-808a-8c8f-d880ea0a7cb9",
      "link": "1e510816-89ff-85d3-8216-b881895f6913",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "747c957d-e363-82d9-9c99-9cf1efe9e814",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "MODERATE",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "550530ed-9960-808a-8c8f-d880ea0a7cb9",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "a2b5f361-ed2d-8404-b6a8-17e4348c77b7",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "MODEL_OUTPUT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "5714d972-0eab-8bfc-9111-be6afac54eb6",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "f0d919d2-645a-8ad0-9d6b-be98579cefd9",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.918000",
      "relevance": "STRONG",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "SECONDARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.918000",
      "interpretive_steps": 1
    },
    {
      "link": "d0942b73-e116-8b73-baf9-1b85cfa01030",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "non_directional",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "dce34391-40d1-804e-b7fb-4cef3a2a0115",
      "direction": "QUALIFY",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "e9600be5-0b51-8d8f-b6c5-8c02e417015b",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "fd0f7c80-ba99-86ae-8ccc-1857653d4518",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "0.000000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "SELF",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.1120",
    "permissive": "0.7673",
    "conservative": "0.6553"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.7146",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "0.918000",
  "snapshot_seq": 24373,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 1,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "LEANS_SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "1e510816-89ff-85d3-8216-b881895f6913",
        "550530ed-9960-808a-8c8f-d880ea0a7cb9",
        "d0942b73-e116-8b73-baf9-1b85cfa01030",
        "e9600be5-0b51-8d8f-b6c5-8c02e417015b"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "0.918000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 5
}