Claim

The study consolidated 58,319 outbreak-event records covering 32 emerging infectious diseases to test social and environmental drivers of outbreak geography.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 22413

a conjunction joins clauses that may be separately evaluable

Referenced 109 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 68, shared 39. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Public health · 1efd24fe Wildlife · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

2 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 1 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability HIGH

Main unresolved issue: 3 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:b36b2d26-19f8-80de-b4c9-82242555a061

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.A quoted passage from nature.com was not found on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The primary abstract reports 58,319 outbreak events across 32 diseases and 16 tested drivers. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The quoted passage directly reports 58,319 outbreak-event records spanning 32 diseases and testing social and environmental drivers of outbreak geographies.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Supported.

Hide calculation

0.9734 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability HIGH · 3 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:c6a7220e603f9e567244364ecf8b08214b2611c544f69fd38ba24ceb610b106a

Last changed at entry seq 25649; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
276e6795 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 3c6c868b)
3c6c868b support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DATASET_RESULT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
ea0303cb support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 3.600000 (the counted weights) = 3.600000 → probability 0.9734

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.9255 to 0.9908, a spread of 0.0653.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The study consolidated 58,319 outbreak-event records covering 32 emerging infectious diseases to test social and environmental drivers of outbreak geography.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A global Nature analysis linked emerging-disease outbreak geography to heterogeneous anthropogenic drivers and healthcare-access reporting bias.” · 3 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The primary abstract reports 58,319 outbreak events across 32 diseases and 16 tested drivers.

From The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Exact abstract dataset statement.
The main text specifies the dataset’s 58,319 events, 169-country coverage, and 1910–2022 time span.

From The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

Additional primary-text dataset description.
The quoted passage directly reports 58,319 outbreak-event records spanning 32 diseases and testing social and environmental drivers of outbreak geographies.

From The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The excerpt states the record count, disease count, and study purpose.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
68750df5		3c6c868b

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

2 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	276e6795, 3c6c868b, ea0303cb

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The primary abstract reports 58,319 outbreak events across 32 diseases and 16 tested drivers. b5aacf10

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 68750df5

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:b36b2d26-19f8-80de-b4c9-82242555a061

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
22413	APPENDED
22414	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
22431	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
22473	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
24595	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "claim": "b36b2d26-19f8-80de-b4c9-82242555a061",
  "links": [
    {
      "kept": "730a2e25-0c94-8ee3-8437-ecfe3c6c868b",
      "link": "71c985c3-baca-8c74-976a-34ee276e6795",
      "group": null,
      "reason": "dependent_strongest_only",
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "67c60097-8515-8cee-977f-456f68750df5",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DIRECT_TEXT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "0.000000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "730a2e25-0c94-8ee3-8437-ecfe3c6c868b",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "0cd12ae7-e962-8703-9f2b-409eb5aacf10",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
      "observation": "DATASET_RESULT",
      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    },
    {
      "link": "e5d751cb-1b72-87a8-9769-febcea0303cb",
      "group": null,
      "edition": "NAMED_OR_UNRELATED",
      "evidence": "275c8b62-1d43-823f-9b74-712008c502f3",
      "direction": "SUPPORT",
      "magnitude": "1.800000",
      "relevance": "DIRECT",
      "extraction": "UNVERIFIED",
      "provenance": "INDEPENDENT",
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      "source_type": "PRIMARY_TEXT",
      "authenticity": "UNVERIFIED",
      "audit_confirmed": false,
      "effective_weight": "1.800000",
      "interpretive_steps": 0
    }
  ],
  "model": "ledger-default@0.3.0",
  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
    "spread": "0.0653",
    "permissive": "0.9908",
    "conservative": "0.9255"
  },
  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "HIGH",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9734",
  "provisional": true,
  "evidence_sum": "3.600000",
  "snapshot_seq": 25649,
  "prior_log_odds": "0.000000",
  "support_groups": 2,
  "model_dependent": false,
  "review_coverage": "0.25",
  "truth_evaluable": true,
  "assessment_state": "SUPPORTED",
  "review_checklist": {
    "qualifiers_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "opposing_search_done": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "independence_reviewed": {
      "by": [],
      "ok": false
    },
    "primary_source_reviewed": {
      "by": [
        "71c985c3-baca-8c74-976a-34ee276e6795",
        "730a2e25-0c94-8ee3-8437-ecfe3c6c868b",
        "e5d751cb-1b72-87a8-9769-febcea0303cb"
      ],
      "ok": true
    }
  },
  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
  "posterior_log_odds": "3.600000",
  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 3
}