Claim

The study reported that the CMIP6 inventory overestimated black-carbon radiative forcing by 45%.

Type QUANTITATIVE · truth-evaluable: yes · status at snapshot: ACTIVE · created seq 15174 · qualifiers {"population":"Black-carbon radiative forcing estimated with the CMIP6 inventory","denominator":"Comparison against the study's localized assessment"}

Referenced 127 times: checked 2, looked up by assistants 0, viewed 91, shared 34. A count of attention, not evidence.

Topics

Climate · 1efd24fe Public health · 1efd24fe

Assessment

Supported

Score: 0.9121 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745

3 of 4 review checks done · 1 counted · 2 by the author only

2 independent evidence lineages · review checks 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM

Main unresolved issue: 4 counted evidence items have no independence review; repeats of one origin may be counted as several coverage:b7873c44-1dca-86f7-b1f7-f5061691c4cd

Not yet independently audited.Evidence reviewed so far supports this claim, but only 1 of 4 review checks has been done.Every quoted passage was confirmed on the page when Galedra fetched it.

Why?

Strongest counted support: The Nature Communications abstract states that the CMIP6 inventory overestimates black-carbon radiative forcing by 45%. weight 1.800000 evidence

Suppressed as dependent: The excerpt directly reports that the CMIP6 inventory overestimated black-carbon radiative forcing by 45%.

Review gaps: qualifiers reviewed, opposing search done, independence reviewed

What would most change this: One independent, direct measurement that contradicts this claim would move it from Supported to Unresolved.

Hide calculation

0.9121 under ledger-default@0.3.0 at snapshot 27745 · state Supported · Review checks: 1 of 4 · stability MEDIUM · 4 sources, 2 independent lineages

Model ledger-default@0.3.0 (the default model, not the answer) · snapshot 27745 · trace sha256:ea272af99ffcb0f38326f1510446e5a279fac60e3114dc509e29dc21a130d287

Last changed at entry seq 15514; nothing logged since has borne on this claim.

How the number was reached

Each counted link is weighed by multiplying the factors the model declares; a factor it does not declare is not shown. Every factor name below links to what that number means.

Link	Working	Weight	Counted as
f4d6059c support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000 (dependent strongest only, kept 5e267b3a)
34e044e2 support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	1.800000	1.800000
5c18c949 support	relevance MODERATE 0.6 × observation DIRECT_TEXT 0.9 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.540000	0.540000
5e267b3a support	relevance DIRECT 2.0 × observation MODEL_OUTPUT 0.0 × interpretation 0 steps, 1 − 0.15 × 0 1.000000 × authenticity UNVERIFIED 1.0 × extraction UNVERIFIED 1.0 × provenance INDEPENDENT 1.0 × edition NAMED_OR_UNRELATED 1	0.000000	0.000000

prior 0.50 → log-odds 0.000000 + 2.340000 (the counted weights) = 2.340000 → probability 0.9121

Under neighbouring settings of the same model: 0.8373 to 0.9544, a spread of 0.1171.

Half-even rounding, six places for weights and four for the probability. The same inputs under the same model reproduce this exactly; that is what the trace hash above is for. How a score is worked out explains every factor, why it is there, and what the model sets it to.

Your view

Registered views

Nobody has registered a view yet.

Registered views are personal belief, not evidence: they never change Galedra's assessment. Affiliations are self-declared and shown only for groups of 5 or more.

Checked as part of

Statements this claim was broken out of. The claim is scored on its own; a statement's reading only counts its claims.

“The study reported that the CMIP6 inventory overestimated black-carbon radiative forcing by 45%.” · 1 claim · 29 September 2026
“A localized black-carbon inventory estimated over 540,000 premature deaths attributable to black carbon in China in 2015, while the CMIP6 inventory...” · 2 claims · 29 September 2026

Evidence for

The abstract reports a 45% overestimate of black-carbon radiative forcing by the CMIP6 inventory.

From The Hidden Health and Climate Burden of Black Carbon under China’s Dual Carbon Strategy Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The abstract directly states the 45% overestimate.
The excerpt directly reports that the CMIP6 inventory overestimated black-carbon radiative forcing by 45%.

From The Hidden Health and Climate Burden of Black Carbon under China’s Dual Carbon Strategy Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The passage explicitly states the inventory and percentage overestimate.
The publication-index abstract reproduces the study’s report that the CMIP6 inventory overestimated black-carbon radiative forcing by 45%.

From The Hidden Health and Climate Burden of Black Carbon under China’s Dual Carbon Strategy Read 2026-09-29 Relevance MODERATE Steps 0 Counted

This is a secondary reproduction of the paper abstract, not an independent radiative-forcing analysis.
The Nature Communications abstract states that the CMIP6 inventory overestimates black-carbon radiative forcing by 45%.

From The Hidden Health and Climate Burden of Black Carbon under China’s Dual Carbon Strategy Read 2026-09-29 Relevance DIRECT Steps 0 Counted

The peer-reviewed article's abstract directly states the claimed 45% overestimate.

Evidence against

None.

Qualifications

None.

Suppressed as dependent

Evidence	Group	Kept instead
8e3c70e5		5e267b3a

Inferences

Concluded from

None.

Used as a premise in

None.

An inference is interpretation, not evidence: it never changes the assessment of its conclusion. Each premise is a claim with its own evidence.

Threads

None. Threads are for disagreements about how a determination was made — a statement whose figures are not in the passage it rests on, two sources that may share an origin. Something about the world belongs in the evidence above.

Claim edges

None. Edges are stored and displayed; v0.1 does not propagate probability across them.

Review checklist

Review checks: 1 of 4

3 checks by this claim's own author, alongside the independent review above. 1 OPPOSING EVIDENCE SEARCH · 1 QUALIFIER CHECK · 1 EVIDENCE VERIFICATION. A check by the person who recorded a claim does not raise its review coverage.

Check	Done	By
qualifiers reviewed	no
opposing search done	no
independence reviewed	no
primary source reviewed	yes	f4d6059c, 34e044e2, 5e267b3a

Summary

Supported. The main support is: The Nature Communications abstract states that the CMIP6 inventory overestimates black-carbon radiative forcing by 45%. e5e4008e

1 further item repeats the same origin and is not independent evidence. 8e3c70e5

A search for evidence in the opposing direction found something; see the counted evidence. 2d7e45d0

Review checks: 1 of 4. coverage:b7873c44-1dca-86f7-b1f7-f5061691c4cd

Generated by stub-v0.1; every sentence cites graph ids.

Contribution history

seq	event	detail
15174	APPENDED
15175	ACCEPT	AUTOMATIC_AFTER_VALIDATION
15184	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15186	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15211	LINK_EVIDENCE	by 1efd24fe (accepted)
15513	TASK_RESULT	by 1efd24fe (accepted)

Score trace

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  "prior": "0.50",
  "variants": {
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  "code_hash": "sha256:c61a6fdf35a754a0d7e958df149036a083c0eaeb7d2d2e52704ec32b0c36def7",
  "contested": false,
  "stability": "MEDIUM",
  "claim_type": "QUANTITATIVE",
  "config_hash": "sha256:86768038080b8ab5233f1e4b7aba10af05b5bb44caa432095150b90e81209809",
  "probability": "0.9121",
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  "evidence_sum": "2.340000",
  "snapshot_seq": 15514,
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  "support_groups": 2,
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  "review_coverage": "0.25",
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  "review_checklist": {
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    "primary_source_reviewed": {
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  "contradict_groups": 0,
  "rounding_boundary": false,
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  "not_applicable_reason": null,
  "independence_unreviewed": 4
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